submitted by TakeBeerBenchinHilux to Showerthoughts [link] [comments]
I have been following GME since mid-September and over that time I have banked myself a %1300 return in the process. However, the whole time I was a little puzzled with how severe the reactions from Wall Street have been, especially this week. "The company had more than 100% of its stock sold short! That's never happened before!", you say. I know, I know, but that's not actually not a new thing. A short squeeze, even one of this magnitude, should have squoze by now with GME up more than 10x in the span of weeks. Something is just not right. I think there is something much, much bigger going on here. Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system. submitted by johnnydaggers to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Here is my hypothesis: I think the hedge funds, clearing houses, and DTC executed a coordinated effort to put Game Stop out of business by conspiring to create a gargantuan number of counterfeit shares of GME, possibly 100-200% or more of the shares originally issued by Game Stop. In the process, they may have accidentally created a bomb that could blow up the entire system as we know it and we're seeing their efforts to cover this up unfold now. What is that bomb? I believe retail investors may hold more than 100% of GME (not just 100% of the float, more than 100% of the actual company). This would be definitive proof of illegal activity at the highest levels of the financial system. For you to follow this argument, you need to go read the white paper "Counterfeiting Stock 2.0" so you understand how the hedge funds can create fake stock out of thin air and disguise it so it looks like real shares. They use these fake shares in short attacks to drive the price of a company down until they put them into bankruptcy. This practice seems to be widespread among hedge funds that go short. There is even a term for it, "strategic fails–to–deliver." Counterfeiting shares is extremely illegal (similar level to counterfeiting money) but it's very difficult to prove and even getting the court to approve subpoenas because of the way the financial industry has stacked the deck against investigations. This completely explains why so many levels of the financial system seem to be actively trying to get in the way of retail investors purchasing more GME. It's not just about a short squeeze, it's about their firms' very existence and their own personal freedom. We have the opportunity to put all these people in jail by proving that we own more than 100% of shares in existence. There are are 71 million shares of GME that have ever been issued by the company. Institutions have reported to the SEC via 13F filings that they own more than 102,000,000 shares (including the 13% of GME stock is owned by Ryan Cohen). Now, I don't know the delay/variance on these ownership numbers, but I think there is a pretty solid argument that close to 100% of GME is owned by these firms, if not more. Moreover, there are now more than 7 million people subscribed to wallstreetbets~~. I know lots of people here are sitting on a few hundred shares that they bought back when it was under $50. Some of us are even holding thousands. If the average number of shares owned by each subscriber is even close to 5-10, we have a very good shot at also owning a similarly enormous amount of GME.~~ Even if the average was just 10 shares per legit subscriber, that puts the minimum retail position at about 30-50% of the entire company. GME has been on the NYSE threshold list for almost a month. We don't have January data yet, but I just analyzed the data from the SEC's fails–to–deliver list for December (all 65,871 lines of it) and looked up the number of shares that were likely counterfeit. For comparison, I did the same for a couple random tickers. Most companies have close to no shares not show up. Of those that do, it's a relatively small number of shares. For example, two random companies: Lowes ($LOW, ~$125B market cap) had 13,960 shares fail to be delivered at its highest point that month, Boston Beer Company ($SAM, $11.5B market cap) had 295 shares fail to be delivered. How many shares of GME failed to deliver? 1,787,191. As the white papers points out, the true number of counterfeit shares can be 20x this number. How bad do you think that number will be when we get the numbers for January? I'm willing to bet its many times that. Look at how that compares to other companies' stock: Histogram showing number of shares that weren't delivered in December (x-axis) vs the number of companies that fall into that bin (y-axis). GME is an extreme outlier. I think this explains all the shenanigans going on the last few days. There is way too much counterfeit GME stock out there and DTC, the clearing houses, and the hedge funds are all in on it. That's why there has been such a coordinated effort to disrupt our ability to buy shares. No real shares can be found and it's about to cause the system to fall apart. TLDR; We probably own way more of GME than we think and that is freaking out Wall Street because it could prove they've been up to some extremely illegal shit and the whole system could implode as a result. Disclaimer: I'm just a starving engineering PhD student and I don't work in finance. I have no inside knowledge of how the financial system works and I may be wrong on some of this. This is not financial advice and you shouldn't trade based on it. I am book-smart but I still eat crayons like the rest of you. Obligatory rocket: 🚀 EDIT 0: Looks like I truly belong on this sub. On the first version of this post I didn't read the file description properly and summed a cumulative distribution. My numbers were wrong, but I have updated the plot and post with the correct numbers. EDIT 1: You should also note this is the distribution for NASDAQ tickers, not the entire NYSE. I doubt that the distribution trend is any different though. EDIT 2: Evidence that Fannie May and Freddie Mac were killed in 2008 via short attacks using counterfeit shares: report. Exactly what I think they were trying to do to GME. EDIT 3: A lot of people were hung up on the "3 shares per wsb subscriber thing". I know many accounts are bots, I was intentionally underestimating that number. I have adjusted to 10 shares per "legit subscriber" to reflect this without changing the total amount I think retail owns. EDIT 4: What I'm seeing on Twitter makes me think I'm being interpreted a little too hyperbolically when I say "Something big enough to blow up the entire financial system." We're not going to go back to mud huts, people. This could just be really disruptive for a short amount of time and cause a number of firms to face liquidity problems, possibly bankrupting some of them. Life will go on and I'm confident regulators and government will step in and protect people if necessary. Hopefully they pay more attention to enforcing securities laws going forward to prevent this from happening again. EDIT 5: Backup link for white paper. EDIT 6: I am getting thousands of messages. I won't be able to respond to all of them. Here is an FAQ:
|
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form. submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later. Ok, listen up normies. Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you. I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on. CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell: I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags. This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS" Let's take a look at some of today's gainers: (changed tickers for automod avoidance) $USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason $SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day $TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly $OhGeeEye - lol $HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has. Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders. If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either. THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain: https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629 Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here. The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher. Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top. https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up. Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because... ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do. 200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads. What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later). But, this IS a casino after all... Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe. For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended. Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn. So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino. Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders. Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons: NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS. Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)* Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play. You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you. THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER. And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up? The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on. You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either. These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere. SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down. Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent. Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb. Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person. Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages. Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure. |
submitted by andejoh to MensRights [link] [comments] |
Wow - what a week. This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true. submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] Previous Important Posts
What’s happened thus farWhy did GME go up on Friday?The story here is more complex than paid media articles would like you to believe. GME has been driven up by 3 different forces:
Why did GME come down?Here’s where things got interesting for me, and something I think happened again today (Monday) when GME climbed up over 100% but then had a rapid reversal, closing 20% above yesterday but closing below open.So Friday looked like a slam dunk - gamma squeeze, no shorts available to short, puts were getting exceedingly expensive as a short tactic. What happened? This is my fan fiction, based on what I saw. I believe market-makers took a non-neutral stance and began actively shorting the stock after the second halt. Market-makers are responsible for maintaining liquidity and functioning in the stock market, but they also have abilities that others don’t - for example they are legally allowed to naked short for “liquidity purposes”. They also have the ability to halt trading. There were two halts in the day on Friday: First, when GME was up 69% (heh heh), and then a few minutes later when it kept climbing after the first halt was relaxed. Note that at the time of the first halt, the bid-ask spread was $10 on the underlying a huge signal that there just were not enough shares to buy. However, after the second halt, something strange happened. Whereas a few minutes prior, there were no sellers willing to sell their shares below $75, within 15 minutes after the halt there were sellers at 70, 65, 60, and 56. Where did these sellers come from? Incredible momentum reversal on Friday 1/22 to push the price not too far above the 60c strike price. My speculation? This was a coordinated naked short ladder attack. In this type of attack, short seller A sells to short seller B, who then turns around to short seller A at a lower price, etc. and with a very small amount of capital you can wreck the momentum of a stock and make people think that others are running for the exits. Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60. All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher. A repeat on MondayThe short ladder attack repeated on Monday.GME opened strong above $90, and quickly climbed to a high above $155 before it was halted, immediately after the halt, a short ladder attack again drove the price down Dejavu - Incredible Momentum Reversal after trading halts. Both days, there were rapid and significant reversals in momentum. Now, I kept wondering - why would MM’s take the side of the shorts? What’s in it for them? One theory was that they were not adequately hedged, with the low liquidity of the stock meaning that the price was moving up too fast for them to acquire the shares they needed to. But then the news hit today: A new opponent enters the ring:https://preview.redd.it/8htb0scgpkd61.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=228a8a84e592ea4642a61c5e07e07ae344ac8f2c That’s right, the same Citadel listed by the NYSE as one of their designated market makers is now invested in Melvin’s hedge fund and has a financial interest in the direction of GME’s share price. Hey media - you want a manipulation story? You’re missing the big one. Now what?Shorts have pulled new dirty tactics each time they’ve been pushed to the edge. Paid media attacks, Citron’s fluff tweet + coordinated shorting, and now they’ve got the actual people who get all the order flow on their side.On the other hand, GME is still up over 20% and now trading at $88.00 after hours, which is well above the previous day’s high. https://preview.redd.it/rr5qet4ipkd61.png?width=724&format=png&auto=webp&s=96d28bf446a714906712503726f5903a681d5368 What this tells me is that GME’s true price is still being suppressed. They are using every tactic possible, even changing the bid-ask spread rules on options to specifically target retail’s buying of options. We’re now playing the game against the folks who write the rules of the game. Some shorts may have covered today - with prices below $60 at one point they had some great opportunities to. However, there is no way all of the shorts who need to exit covered today. The short position still lost 20% from yesterday. They’ve got more fingers in the dam, but it’s definitely cracking. Also, every call option purchased prior to 1/25 is ITM and profitable, while every put option purchased prior to 1/25 is OTM. And, for some reason, the SEC still doesn’t want to enforce the threshold securities list for GME, where it’s now been on for more than 30 days in a highly covered “short squeeze”. https://preview.redd.it/rbrf6khjpkd61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e4f432ff02dbf475a03cc68c54a5a0f5f0de429 Margin impacts:Note that at this point, most brokers have increased margin on GME. This means that people that are long or short on margin will need to put up capital to hold their positions.This also means puts will get more expensive as people who sell puts will have to maintain 100% of the notional in their accounts to secure the put, so MMs will have fewer retail sellers of puts to absorb the demand. That means it’s not a bad idea to sell puts to acquire shares if you’re aiming for the long-term and not the squeeze, but keep in mind you’ll need the exact same capital as if you’d bought the shares, so it’s up to you on this. For shorts, a margin increase while the price is moving against you (even with retracements) is no good. My speculation
Things to be careful aboutAs you can see, this is no easy win. I've been in GME for a few months but I've seen almost every trick in the book. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
1/26 UpdateHi everyone. Sorry for not posting or replying to comments. I was auto-banned from WSB when this post was auto-deleted by the auto-mod. Thanks to u/zjz to reversing the auto-deletion of the post though as it looked like it was helpful to the community.Hope you all made a ton of money today! Quick Notes:
|
I want you to understand this. Truly. submitted by OlyBomaye to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] I like GameStop. I like $GME. I believe in the long term plan (or what I/we think is the plan, anyway). I bought a Pro Membership and have put in orders through the app I downloaded. I think they'll kill 4Q earnings in March. I THINK GAMESTOP IS A GOOD COMPANY. I think Cohen and his team bring something to the table that will truly turn around the company. I think CNBC and particularly Melissa Lee can go suck an egg with their dismissiveness of the bull case, which they barely even pretend to have considered. I think the stock was and has been manipulated as fuck. My personal belief, which I require nobody else to share, is that Ryan Cohen and gang also still have more buying to do, and their buying alone will drive the price up. But my belief is that they have no interest in buying at this price, or they'd have done so. I believe they're waiting for the price to fall back toward the fair market value. And I believe they may force the issue by issuing more shares. That's what I believe, and why I'm not holding positions right now. I probably will in the future, but my personal opinion is the time is not right. I wrote these posts: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6n4lj/on_leverage_supply_demand_how_we_got_here_gme/ https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l6rsol/heres_the_letter_i_wrote_to_my_congressman/ (EDIT: lol I just realized both of those posts aren't visible since they were removed by the mods. They were pro-retail and pro-GME) I want to see people make money on this. Better yet, I WOULD LIKE TO MAKE MONEY ON THIS. Further, what Robinhood did, as well as Webull, Interactive Brokers, E*Trade, EToro, and tons of other brokerages did, was fucked up. Everybody here agrees. But you guys are actually fucking insane. We dont have a problem with the stock. We have a problem with YOU. Many of the people who have joined WSB in the past two weeks are brand new to investing. And that's okay! But the new people (7 million new versus 1.5 million old) have done the following:
If this is the investment that you truly want to make, and you feel you have an understanding of the risks, then fucking let it rip. I hope it works out. Seriously, I want you to make money. I like Gain porn a lot more than Loss porn. But stop bullshitting. Stop brigading. Stop spamming. You're driving us nuts. https://preview.redd.it/h7xqt1iw97g61.jpg?width=466&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bc87b50bb806d2bedbb5aa0c3fa1ff56d19660b2 |
Vegetto is the fusion of Goku and Vegeta via an item called Potara!! He can also transform into Super Vegetto, his Super Saiyan form!! As you’d expect of a fusion between the mightiest pair, they’ve become the strongest in the universe!! Maybe even stronger than Super Saiyan 4?!So there you have it: a bonus feature with definitely no Toriyama involvement and probably no involvement from anyone who actually wrote GT either says that Vegetto is “maybe” stronger than SS4. Alright, so it is still an official Shueisha publication, but even if we accept this as 100% canon, what does a 100% canonical “maybe” mean in concrete terms? This is a running theme with a lot of these statements from guidebooks and other official secondary sources, since they love hedging their bets.
The GME SEC Data and Hedge Fund Shitfuckery: A Deep DiveAs I'm sure many of you who have been following the "Counterfeit Shares" theory about the various short attacks on $GME have seen, the SEC publishes lagged data on the cumulative number of Fails to Deliver for every company. If you aren't caught up with the latest info on the counterfeit share theory, take a second and read u/johnnydaggers's [post](https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) laying out the issue with hedge funds counterfeiting shares and how it relates to GME. Much of the analysis in Johnny's post comes from an article ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html) which is definitely worth a read if you have the time and patience to do a deep dive into the evil shit carried out by hedge funds.TLDR of Johnny's post: Hedge funds create a bunch of stock out of thin air and short it, selling the counterfeit shares on the open market and driving the price of a company down. They then fail to come up with the shares they sold in time, so the "counterfeit" shares are never backed up by real shares. This could be happening on a massive scale with GME, and Hedge Funds could have far greater exposure to GME than previously thought. The Data: I noticed that while u/johnnydaggers and later u/Peteskies used data from the SEC releases in their posts, the data they actually showed was only a small piece, and lacked very important context. So, with that in mind, I took the SEC Fails-to-Deliver data [releases](https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm) for both halves of November and December and the first half of January and took a look at what was going on using some pivot tables. I thought given the sheer amount of data (1.5 million cells) it would be tough to load in Excel but it actually ended up being pretty easy. (probably helped that my day job is just alternately making pivot tables and slamming my head into the wall, I've gotten pretty good at both) IMPORTANT NOTE: THIS RELEASE EXTENDS TO JANUARY 14TH, 2021. THESE ARE NOT CURRENT CUMULATIVE OUTSTANDING FAIL-TO-DELIVER LEVELS Fails-to-Deliver Distributions: First, take a look at this handy histogram(ish) of companies with outstanding Fails-to-Deliver and their outstanding "counterfeit share" (cumulative Fails-to-Deliver) numbers: https://preview.redd.it/6dmfpfql47f61.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf38fea8f5de2e45b36b48853f4d7afaca8f6c28 As you can see, GME is way outside of the pack when it comes to Fail to Delivers, and has significantly more "counterfeit shares" (FTDs) than almost any other company. The exact number comes in at a cool 621,483 shares. The x-axis scale isn't even linear, and you can see significant jumps in the last quarter. If you think that's some crazy shit, wait until you see the distribution of Fail-to-Delivers per company by the dollar value of counterfeit shares ((Closing Price)*(# of Outstanding Fails-to-Deliver)): https://preview.redd.it/024mdiv147f61.png?width=1616&format=png&auto=webp&s=270fc53a5455994545a864e8b8e9c304b0e57b5c GameStop has the SECOND HIGHEST Fails-to-Deliver net dollar value of all 5,147 stocks with current fail-to-delivers (as of 1/14/21). NINETEEN MILLION DOLLARS of stock floating around that was simply created out of thin air. Here the x-axis isn't even linear either — if it were to scale, GME would be several meters to my right. Wild. Cumulative Fails-to-Deliver of GME over Time: Moving on to more interesting (and potentially more troubling) data, I took a look at the Fails-to-Deliver values over time for GME. I decided to go back to the beginning of November, then look at every number the SEC had released since on FTDs for GME. This is crucial context for the numbers that have been thrown around by u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies. https://preview.redd.it/myt4zxy347f61.png?width=1328&format=png&auto=webp&s=603b5d5f0a623dc0dc9ef0df1f3da05e7361340f Now, this one is a lot less clear-cut than those histograms I just wrote about. As you can see, there have been huge fluctuations in the amount of "counterfeit stock" (Fails-to-Deliver) on the market. There is a definite pattern of Hedge Funds running up Fails-to-Deliver during GME surges and then covering once the price slumps a bit. I've talked with one of my sources involved with hedge fund operations, and he said this is pretty standard procedure — when you sell a naked short and the price spikes, you talk it out with your broker and get a few more days to cover. So really, this pattern is more or less normal. It's the stupidly large amounts Fails-to-Deliver that are getting churned that is the irregular part. Here's a good spot to bring up my main concern with the kind of analyses that u/johnnydaggers and u/Peteskies were putting out. You can see that there were 1.8 million Fails-to-Deliver on GME on December 2nd, but that number was basically completely covered by the 16th. Based on that data it seems at first glance that, for the most part, these reported Fails-to-Deliver are Hedge Funds/Brokers trying to avoid covering while high and simply waiting for the next dip. This data alone IS NOT SUFFICIENT to prove that there is an enormous, market-moving quantity of Fails-to-Deliver floating around the market. Of course, right after this data cuts out, GME shoots to the moon (300+), and I would expect a lot of naked short vendors were caught with their pants down. Maybe they all covered on the recent dips, maybe loads of Fails-to-Deliver are still out there. A table with that GME info from the graph above for any lurking nerds: https://preview.redd.it/0pj2hh0647f61.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcf2d64f6777218dece7735075b779fb51e28cca Some Questionable Inferences and My Retarded Conclusions: So, what's the takeaway here, other than don't trust everything you read on WallStreetBets? I think there are a few lessons. First, even though Fails-to-Deliver numbers were bouncing all over the place, including being completely covered on 12/16, I think it's important to keep in mind that GME having this volume of Fails-to-Deliver, both in shares and in dollars, is extremely irregular compared to everything else. Could just be the fact that GME is an insane stock with insane volatility,* or could be indicative of something more. \Yet, this data is from back before GME became mainstream — GME in December was not an "unprecedented situation" like we have now. Thinking back to then, the high Fails-to-Deliver numbers are even more significant.* A Possibility of Hedge Fund Armageddon: I want to take a second to talk about one of the diagrams from the good folks who wrote ["Counterfeiting Stock 2.0"](http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html), detailing both the "surface level" indicators of Disclosed Shorts and Fails-to-Deliver, and the below-the-surface hidden pathways that they believed pumped counterfeit shares into our financial system. Here it is: https://preview.redd.it/v3io9bj847f61.jpg?width=1086&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=21d67bbec3d7d4e3b2012b3d51cdaf462ae3318d As you can see, the Counterfeiting 2.0 authors believed that Fails-to-Deliver were just the tip of the iceberg. Below the surface (and out of the sight of the SEC), they believed there was a massive volume of shares that had been "laundered," through foreign exchanged, offshore funds, or even gaps in the Continuous Net Clearing system at the DTCC. These stocks, theoretically, go from Fails-to-Deliver to simple counterfeit shares, or even straight to counterfeits. The arguments in the Counterfeiting 2.0 paper go way over my head as a simple retard, but I get the gut feeling at least some of them are accurate. If, hypothetically, (please read this part in your best Ben Shapiro voice), the arguments in Counterfeiting 2.0 are true, then it is highly likely that the huge Fails-to-Deliver churn on the surface is just the tip of a massive illegal counterfeit short position. GME BULLS, listen up. If this counterfeit short position does exist, then it was probably entered back when GME was being driven towards bankruptcy, at a share price somewhere in the $15/20 range, and possibly expanded when GME was being driven down below $5. There are actually interesting data to suggest that this is a plausible scenario. First, the fact that, as DeepFuckingValue noted a year ago, the market cap of GME was driven below the net value of its assets. Obviously, this happens from time to time, but it's indicative of an extremely artificially depressed valuation. Secondly, the central use of illegal naked shorting is in driving companies to bankruptcy, and it did seem like GME was on its way out. Looking at GME as a scummy hedge fund manager, it would have made a very attractive target for a naked-short dilution attack. These illegal short positions, if they were not covered by cautious (lol) Hedgies at the beginning of the GME runup, would have increased 50-100x in dollar value as the share price of GME rose. That's 5,000-10,000% for those who can't do basic math. Now I don't know if this scenario would be enough to crash the market, but it would certainly be enough to make a lot of extremely powerful people (currently engaged in a criminal enterprise) desperate and very, very angry. This hardly needs saying, but rich bastards have killed for far less than a billion dollars. Here, there could be tens of billions on the line. So, that's the mega-bull case. We, the tards of WSB, expose billions in financial crime. The SEC rappels into Citadel and arrests everyone, Robinhood goes bankrupt, and all our wives and their boyfriends get filthy rich. However, there is also a very significant BEAR case here. If the regular, everyday investors who wrote Counterfeiting 2.0 were in fact retards like us, then there's a significant chance that they simply got it wrong. Maybe there is no sea of hidden counterfeit short positions, and maybe this whole Fails-to-Deliver thing is just rich assholes using extra trading days to cheaply sell shorts. What then? In that case, I would bet my left nut that all of the outstanding Fails-to-Deliver have been covered in the recent slump, and this whole exciting report is largely irrelevant to the future performance of GME. I'm not going to make the case that either the bulls or the bears are right (even though my gut is with the bulls) because I simply don't have the information or mental capacity to make that call. Look at the data yourself, and draw your own conclusions. Retail is facing an enemy with more capital, more information, more experience, and fewer morals. Whichever way it goes, it's going to be an ugly fight. Positions: 12 shares (Bought 50 at $20, sold 50 at $250, bought back in 12 at $300). I plan to hold until either $4,000 a share or things go to shit. I am not a financial advisor, and I do not advise any readers to make financial decisions based on my opinions or the information presented in this report. TLDR: the cumulative Fails-to-Deliver volume on GME is massive compared to the rest of the market. However, is also extremely volatile, and small compared to the float. It is possible that high Fails-to-Deliver volume is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.Edit: shout out to zjz for finally approving the post, may you live long and stay retarded! |
hedge your bets definition: 1. to protect yourself against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides in a…. Learn more. Hedging a bet means placing a bet or bets on a different outcome or outcomes, subsequent to an original bet, in order to create a situation where there is a guaranteed profit whether the original bet wins or loses. hedge your bets meaning: 1. to protect yourself against loss by supporting more than one possible result or both sides in a…. Learn more. Cambridge Dictionary +Plus Hedge one's bets definition at Dictionary.com, a free online dictionary with pronunciation, synonyms and translation. Look it up now! To hedge a bet synonyms, To hedge a bet pronunciation, To hedge a bet translation, English dictionary definition of To hedge a bet. to bet upon both sides; that is, after having bet on one side, to bet also on the other, thus guarding against loss. hedge one's bets. Fig. to reduce one's loss on a bet or on an investment by counterbalancing the loss in some way. Bob bet Ann that the plane would be late. He usually hedges his bets. This time he called the airline and asked about the plane before he made the bet. Hedge one's bets definition is - to do things that will prevent great loss or failure if future events do not happen as one plans or hopes. How to use hedge one's bets in a sentence. Synonyms for hedging your bets include on the fence, ambivalent, borderline, debatable, divided, equivocal, hesitant, iffy, impartial and indecisive. Find more similar words at wordhippo.com! The term "hedge your bets" is well-known phrase. It has been around in English since at least the 16 th century, when it referred to laying off a bet by placing a smaller wager with other lenders. And, today in modern gambling, the meaning still holds true. Essentially, "hedging a bet" means to reduce risk and, sometimes, guarantee a profit. Define hedging bets. hedging bets synonyms, hedging bets pronunciation, hedging bets translation, English dictionary definition of hedging bets. n. 1. A row of closely planted shrubs or low-growing trees forming a fence or boundary. 2. A line of people or objects forming a barrier: a hedge of...
[index] [9425] [9034] [3039] [6480] [3072] [7734] [57] [1039] [6819] [2904]
Copyright © 2024 top100.gamesmoneys.site