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FluroTech Provides Executive Update on Program Advancements
Flurotech TSX: $TEST | OTCQB: $FLURF https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAcqwoeyhM0&t=282s They're developing a way to rapidly test for COVID19 using saliva at entry ways of stadiums, airports, offices, etc. (2,500 tests per hour, individual results in 5 minutes). News just released this morning: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/03/2169027/0/en/FluroTech-Provides-Executive-Update-on-Program-Advancements.html CALGARY, Alberta, Feb. 03, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Flurotech Ltd. (TSX: $TEST) | (OTCQB: $FLURF) (“FluroTech” or the “Company”), a leading developer of spectroscopy-based technology, together with FluroTest, LLC (“FluroTest”), a first-mover in surge-scale rapid antigen testing for the detection of COVID-19 and other pathogens, today announced that it is actively working and achieving major milestones as the Company prepares its application for emergency use authorization (“EUA”) with the FDA. Key activity includes:
Clinical Trial Update: Advanced discussions are occurring daily with a notable, US-based healthcare system to begin significant clinical trials to determine the efficacy of the FluroTest Pandemic Defense System.
Company Amalgamation: FluroTech and FluroTest joint efforts and expressed interest to amalgamate and consolidate have accelerated since entering into a Letter of Intent with a majority of the other FluroTest shareholders in a transaction that, when completed, will result in the Company acquiring up to 95% of FluroTest in Q1 2021.
Coronavirus Variant Detection: Scientific team remains confident about the test detection capability for SARS-Cov-2 UK and South African variants.
Clinical Trial FluroTest is in daily discussions with a major U.S. based healthcare system and finalizing plans to conduct clinical trials. FluroTest intends to complete a comprehensive and large-scale clinical trial to obtain the requisite data on its systems performance for EUA consideration. The company will update the market as appropriate. “Team excitement and enthusiasm are running high this week,” said Bill Phelan, CEO of FluroTest. “The opportunity to secure such a renowned clinical trial partner is an essential part of our plan to earn public trust and secure major contracts. As we take steps to formalize this mass trial engagement, our vision is to ultimately prove the efficacy of our system, which our proof-of-concept work has shown to be ‘unlike any other.’ This past week we saw Bill Gates calling for the development of a ‘mega test’ to help manage the next pandemic -- but following what I believe will be a highly successful clinical validation, our aim is to make a major impact on the one we’re currently living in.” Amalgamation FluroTech has accelerated the financial, regulatory and legal due diligence to complete the transaction with FluroTest shareholders to obtain 95% of the interest in FluroTest. This amalgamation is subject to TSXV conditions and approvals. FluroTech is working to ensure this process is carried out in the most efficient manner possible and will update the market as appropriate. “After speaking with our major shareholders, we remain committed to complete the amalgamation with FluroTest in the quickest and most economical way possible. We are working closely with the TSX Venture Exchange to figure out exactly what that will look like, and I’m pleased to say that we’re all aligned and committed to this goal.” said Danny Dalla-Longa, CEO of FluroTech “Since completing the financing we have been able to accelerate all of our plans, and as a major shareholder and CEO of FluroTest, I look forward to completing the amalgamation process and moving forward to commercialization as a single entity,” said Bill Phelan, CEO of FluroTest. SARS-Cov-2 Variants FluroTest has been informed by its biologics supplier that the reagent pair it utilizes has been shown to detect the variant strains first emerging in the U.K. and in South Africa. FluroTest targets the nucleocapsid protein on the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus and a majority of the mutations appearing to date are of the spike protein.The Company continues to monitor the situation closely and does not anticipate efficacy concerns with the variants that have occurred thus far. “In light of the recent news circulating about new variants, vaccine efficacy and the adoption of mass scale rapid testing we believe that we are entering the market at an opportune time,” Dalla-Longa continued. “To date, I haven’t seen another feasible point-of-entry testing solution and we aim to fill that gap for our customers large and small. After clinicals, we’re in for a game changer.” About FluroTech(TSXV:TEST) (OTCQB:FLURF) The goal of FluroTech’s research and technology is to develop detection methods which are sensitive, specific, and easy-to-use. By combining FluroTech’s proprietary spectroscopy-based technology with laboratory robotics automation and cloud computing, FluroTech, through the application of its technology and investment in Flurotest, has created a unique solution addressing the current and future pandemics. Using technology that was first developed at the University of Calgary, the FluroTest SARS-CoV-2 test is designed to identify patients with active virus infection; this is not necessarily the case for most of the currently approved tests that are meant to identify patients with SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid. FluroTech’s laboratory is led by Dr. Elmar Prenner, the original developer of the technology. Dr. Prenner serves as senior science advisor of FluroTech and brings over 28 years of expertise in fluorescence spectroscopy. To learn more, visit FluroTech.com About FluroTest LLC FluroTest, a first-mover in surge-scale rapid antigen testing for the detection of SARS-CoV2 and other pathogens, is developing a pandemic defense and economic recovery system purpose-built for businesses and special-needs populations requiring fast and highly efficient testing for significant numbers of people. Unlike individual or low-throughput tests, FluroTest’s system is designed to be well-suited for high-traffic, high-risk pandemic environments including schools and colleges, hospitals and large healthcare facilities, athletic stadiums and performance venues, airline and cruise ship terminals, corporate campuses, shopping centers, manufacturing facilities, transportation and distribution hubs, and other large business and retail locations. Created to support executive business continuity efforts, the system combines and leverages the disciplines of robotics automation, biochemistry, fluorescence detection and cloud computing -- processing thousands of tests per hour while delivering accurate, digitally verifiable results to a test taker’s mobile device within 5 minutes. To learn more, visit FluroTest.com For all investor inquiries: MarketSmart Communications Inc. 1-877-261-4466 [email protected] For general inquiries: [email protected] Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information This news release contains "forward-looking information" within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking information generally refers to information about an issuer’s business, capital, technology or operations that is prospective in nature, and includes future-oriented financial information about the issuer’s prospective financial performance or financial position. The forward-looking information in this news release includes disclosure about the ability of the Company’s testing devices to accurately and quickly detect COVID-19 and to process large numbers of samples in short time frames, the benefits of and demand for the Company’s testing devices, its efforts to obtain approval of the FDA and Health Canada, its potential partnership with a major U.S. based healthcare system and finalizing plans to conduct clinical trials and its intent to amalgamate with FluroTest Systems Ltd which owns a 95% interest in FluorTest LLC. The Company made certain material assumptions, including but not limited to prevailing market conditions and general business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties, the ability to obtain FDA and Health Canada approvals, the demand for its COVID-19 testing devices and their ability to perform as expected, its potential partnership with a major U.S. based healthcare system and finalizing plans to conduct clinical trials and its intent to amalgamate with FluroTest Systems Ltd which owns a 95% interest in FluorTest LLC and to obtain the regulatory approvals required in connection with the same, to develop the forward-looking information in this news release. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Actual results may vary from the forward-looking information in this news release due to certain material risk factors described in the Corporation’s Annual Information Form under the heading “Risk Factors”, the failure to develop and commercialize its testing devices in a timely manner or at all, the failure to recognize the anticipated benefits from the devices, the failure to obtain FDA or Health Canada approval for its products, the risk that regulatory approvals will not be received and the risk that changing circumstances will result in the decrease in demand for FluroTest’s products. The Company cautions that the foregoing list of material risk factors and assumptions is not exhaustive. The Company assumes no obligation to update or revise the forward-looking information in this news release, unless it is required to do so under Canadian securities legislation. Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy of this release. This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities. The securities described herein have not been and will not be registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to or for the benefit or account of U.S. persons, absent such registration or an applicable exemption from such registration requirements.
Covid-19 Update for January 7: 968 new cases, 1,096 recoveries, 24 deaths + Update on Schools and Restrictions
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media availability by Dr Deena Hinshaw and Premier Jason Kenney. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be tomorrow There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+968
108,469
Active cases
13,298
152
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
3,801 (55.5%) in last 7 days
-418 (-3.6%)
—
Tests
—
+14,866 (~6.63% positive)
2,888,432
People tested
—
+4,061
1,679,738 (~384,291/million)
Hospitalizations
871
-40/-54 based on yesterday's post/portal data
4,443 (+78)
ICU
139
-2/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data
712 (+9)
Deaths
—
+24
1,217
Recoveries
—
+1,096
93,954
Vaccinations
—
+3,831
33,864 (~7,747/million)
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths
50-59
2
60-69
2
70-79
10
80+
10
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths:
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
4,739 (+33)
+1,910
678,846
+406
41,500
+9
384
Central
1,381 (-37)
+418
149,192
+98
7,364
+1
50
Edmonton
5,465 (-208)
+989
561,675
+313
46,386
+13
646
North
1,384 (+67)
+375
156,065
+133
7,834
+0
73
South
252 (-1)
+228
104,111
+21
5,167
+0
63
Unknown
77 (-66)
+141
29,849
-3
218
+1
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.99 (0.97-1.01)
Edmonton
0.92 (0.89-0.95)
Calgary
1.02 (0.99-1.06)
Rest of Province
1.06 (1.01-1.10)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
37,892 (+256)
4,487 (-168)
32,860 (+411)
545 (+13)
Calgary
35,001 (+329)
4,028 (+24)
30,624 (+297)
349 (+8)
Red Deer
1,579 (+11)
252 (-5)
1,319 (+16)
8 (+1)
Fort McMurray
1,476 (+24)
266 (+17)
1,207 (+7)
3 (+0)
Lethbridge
1,463 (+6)
80 (-2)
1,374 (+8)
9 (+0)
Brooks
1,354 (+1)
13 (+1)
1,327 (+0)
14 (+0)
Grande Prairie
861 (+8)
128 (-2)
724 (+10)
9 (+0)
High River + county
738 (+1)
30 (-1)
701 (+2)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
496 (+1)
19 (-3)
462 (+4)
15 (+0)
Medicine Hat
482 (+3)
37 (+0)
436 (+3)
9 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
391 (+1)
14 (+0)
377 (+1)
0
Cardston county
299 (+5)
30 (+2)
263 (+3)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
191 (+2)
28 (+1)
163 (+1)
0
Warner county
146 (+0)
3 (+0)
141 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
124 (+1)
7 (+0)
117 (+1)
0
Rest of Alberta
25,976 (+319)
3,876 (-16)
21,859 (+332)
241 (+3)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers (as of Dec 23):
122 schools are on Watch
172 schools have 2-4 cases
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change as of yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
241 (-13)
48 (-2)
Edmonton
455 (-24)
64 (+0)
Central
92 (-5)
17 (+0)
South
19 (+1)
3 (+0)
North
64 (+1)
7 (+0)
Statements by Premier Kenney Opening Statements
Will be holding a conference tomorrow with regards to vaccines
School Update
In-person classes on January 11th will proceed
Decision made by weighing benefits of in-person school (e.g. - metal health) as well as all school age groups seeing drops in cases
Advice from Chief Medical Officer and Ministry of Education
Notes that younger children may struggle with in-home learning, especially with social development those in lower income families
Knows there is some anxiety, but wants to note that 0.4% of students/staff tested positive
Still notes many still did receive Covid-19 and is dedicated to safe school environment
Restrictions
Covid-19 remains broadly spread with few exceptions
High positive test rate: 2% used to be high. Now we're near 7%
Province is still ahead of most provinces, per capita, in cases and deaths
We would have seen far more cases had we tested more over holidays
Hospitalization and ICU cases are far too high
This isn't an Alberta problem: same is true outside Atlantic bubble
In anticipation of an increase after the holidays (as well as considering hospital burden), measures will remain in effect until the 21st at the least
Emphasizes need to prioritize school over other segments
Travel of Politicians
Knows it's frustrating, especially with politicians travelling. Knows Albertans are angry and they are right to be. It was insulting for Albertans to see leaders travel
Albertans wanted consequences and, after hearing it, has enforced them
Those responsible lost positions and were demoted
Frustration cannot stop hard decisions to protect public health
The trust is broken and must be repaired - feels MLAs took the right tone by taking a pay cut and must get back to that style of leadership
Apologizes for what happened and accepts responsibility for not laying clearer expectations
The Future of Restrictions
Health officials reviewing data over following weeks
Any changes will occur 1+ week in advance as businesses asking for certainty and predictability
Q&A - Travel
Why did you not want to punish MLAs on New Year's Day and change 3 days later?: Didn't know members of caucus were out of country. First learned about it on 29th and wasn't aware until 3rd of full whereabouts and that a significant lapse in party judgment occurred. Didn't want to enforce consequences because he wasn't clear enough but heard the anger from Albertans
(Interjection: I was having a hard time with the timeline and Tracy Allard's story, but from what I can tell based on when comments were posted online, I believe Kenney's claim is that he personally wasn't aware of Allard's travel by the 1st when he held a conference. Source outlets (e.g. - CBC) claimed by sources on the 31st was that Allard had travelled to Hawaii, though I forget if it was confirmed by the government as of yet)
Do you the shaking of public trust makes it harder to make decisions on Covid-19?: It makes it harder for cabinet. Feels now the government has shown consequences for the actions and now needs to rebuild trust...but cannot take risks with Covid-19 despite it. Argues the restrictions in Alberta are balanced and less stringent than other provinces
Will the punishment be the same for new rule breakers?: Yes, for senior members of public trust - elected officials, political staff, executive leaders in Alberta public service. Don't think it's right to regulate all government officials (specifically those with collective bargaining right)
How you respond to calls for further calls (notes "#FireKenney")?: Has complied with all guidelines and has only done window visits to only family member in province. Has only been out province once to Ottawa and hasn't been out of country. Doesn't govern to Twitter hashtags
How do you respond to other groups saying to not travel?: Not telling, but position is to facilitate safe travel: if you travel, be safe. Notes he was early in calling for restrictions from China/Iran. Also recommended negative tests much earlier than federal government adopted
Q&A - Vaccine
How concerned are you about vaccine supply?: Subject of tomorrow's conference. There is concern that as inoculation rate increases, supply may become limiting factor. Doesn't "point fingers", but needs supply procured from federal government ASAP because every day delayed risks public health
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Additional Comments
Cases have decreased since December, but is still high...well over 1,000 daily on average
Hospitalization remains high and healthcare under extreme pressure
Still haven't seen impact of holidays
Choice for in-school was based on evidence in fall, where cases were tied to community spread primarily (6% of school aged children's cases were acquired at school)
Although elementary age children remained in school for December, their age specific case rates had dropped identical to older students
Priority is school as other settings have been a stronger driver of spread
No risk free options, but data indicates current model is effective at limiting transmission
Must continue to stay this course
Q&A - Travel
Where should Albertans turn for advise on travel?: Advise is to not undertake non-essential travel and, if you must, be aware of the regulations in each province. Outside of Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada provides recommendations (even outside of Covid-19)
Q&A - Vaccine
How long until we run out of vaccine?: No particular date as regular shipments are coming in. Working with AHS to inoculate faster
Additional information will be logged below:
The final question was in French. I am not able to translate it. According to Premier Kenney, the question is about extending health restrictions and on travel.
Sometimes the stars align, and everything just goes right—then there is 2020. After a year in which very little went right, perhaps it’s encouraging that Jupiter and Saturn moved into alignment late in December. Apparently, the conjunction between the two planets on Monday—also the Winter Solstice—was the closest in almost 800 years. But that’s not a key plank in our above-consensus call for the global and Canadian economy in 2021. We believe that there are many, more compelling, signposts that activity is coiling for a powerful rebound in the coming year after an incredibly challenging spell.
From Pandemic to Pandemonium?
The global economy is expected to rebound 5.5% in 2021, and then advance another 4.0% in 2022, after plunging 4.0% this year. To put those figures into some perspective, the prior worst recorded year in the post-war era had been a drop of ‘just’ 0.1% in 2009, while a typical year for the world economy in recent times would see growth something just a bit above 3%. A keen observer would note that even with our call of a strong rebound in the coming two years that the level of activity would still be well below its underlying trend by the end of 2022. Part of that shortfall reflects the simple fact that some of this year’s loss on spending in the service sector—such as on travel, entertainment, restaurants—may never be recouped.
The other part of the shortfall, though, may also suggest that even our relatively upbeat view on the next two years is actually understating the potential for growth to snap back. Insofar as vaccines are rolled out effectively, and there is a strong take-up, there is a case to be made that we are underestimating growth in the second half of next year and into 2022. Incredibly supportive fiscal and monetary policies, robust financial conditions (i.e., lofty asset prices), heavy-duty pent-up demand, and the build-up of excess household savings in many economies point to the possibility of a serious burst in spending later next year.
China serves as a clear example of how forcefully things can bounce back as conditions return to something approaching normality. Both retail sales and industrial production have carved out nearly a perfect V-shaped recovery in the world’s second largest economy. Famously, it will thus be one of the few nations to post any growth this year; some of the other lucky few will include Taiwan, Vietnam and Ireland. We look for China to build on this year’s constrained 2% rise with a robust 8% surge in 2021, before easing back to a more trend-like 5% in the following year. The three-year average growth rate of about 5% will pale only somewhat compared with the pre-virus trend of just over 6%. The sturdy rebound is a major reason why non-oil commodity prices—particularly base metals—have seen such a remarkably fast recovery even amid the deepest global downturn in decades.
One implication of the relatively robust recovery in commodity prices, as well as the deep dive in interest rates and strong financial markets, is that emerging markets held up relatively well overall. Despite a vicious drop in global GDP and the wild financial market turmoil in the spring, most emerging market economies avoided the worst. While there were some very specific cases of financial strains—Turkey—most were able to slash borrowing rates, capital flows resumed after a brief stall, and currencies began to recover as the U.S. dollar faded through the second half of the year. This is not to minimize the severe challenges many emerging economies face, especially those heavily reliant on tourism. But, the resiliency of the developing world and a crisis averted on this front is a case of the dog that didn’t bark.
In the advanced economies, sectors that were able to reopen did see a rapid V-shaped recovery in Q3 from the spring shutdowns, and that provides comfort for the call for strong gains in 2021. However, large portions of the economy have still been left behind, and the furious second wave has seen broadening and deepening restrictions across much of the OECD more recently. Amid the patchwork of varying measures, it’s incredibly difficult to assess the economic damage from the second-wave containment steps. It appears that financial markets are all but ignoring the mounting bad news and focusing on the post-vaccine world. But that doesn’t get around the fact that we are about to face a wave of tough economic statistics in coming weeks, most likely including an outright drop in European GDP in Q4, and a near-miss in other economies.
The Euro Area and the U.K. are going to report some of the biggest economic declines in the world for 2020, owing to both their especially challenging experience with the virus but also due to a heavy reliance on the service sector (notably tourism). The flip-side is that these economies may also be poised for the biggest snapbacks. After a near-7% drop in the Euro Area, we look for a 5.5% rebound in the coming year, and then a 3% advance in 2022. The U.K. was hit even harder with a massive 10.5% setback this year, with Brexit uncertainty weighing on top of everything else. With a trade deal with the EU hanging in the balance, a partial recovery is still likely in 2021. (On a technical note, the dive in U.K. GDP appears to be exaggerated by an unusually large reported drop in government spending, which may also set the stage for an unusually big rebound in 2021.)
Elsewhere, Japan saw a somewhat lighter hit than other major developed economies with a drop of just over 5% this year—everything is relative—even though it entered the year already in recession after 2019's sales tax hike. Given that nation’s weak underlying growth and a milder setback in 2020, we expect a more modest 3.5% recovery in 2021, even with the delayed Tokyo Olympics. Australia also was relatively less hard-hit, despite the massive wildfires at the start of the year, a one-sided trade fight with China, and a strong lockdown in Victoria. While the RBA is trying to hold it back, the Australian dollar is now up more than 10% from a year ago and not far from parity with the loonie at around 76 cents(US).
When the final numbers are in for 2020, one truly unusual development (among the many) is that the U.S. economy is likely to print one of the smallest declines in the advanced world. We have chopped this wood before, but the short story is that the U.S. benefited from some of the strongest policy medicine in the world as well as its outsized tech sector. However, we also have to point out that restrictions were relatively light in the U.S. compared to others—even now, with some of the highest virus caseloads in the world on a per capita basis—and thus the direct economic hit was lighter. As the year draws to a close, the new round of fiscal support of $900 billion (or a hefty 4% of GDP), including direct payments of $600 per individual, awaits the President's support. If enacted in a timely fashion, this could add to our upgraded call of 4.5% GDP growth for next year; we have also bumped up our 2022 call by half a point to 3.5%. Yes, one could say that the vaccine has moved the needle on growth, pardon the awful pun.
We have also tweaked our call on Canadian growth over the next two years. However, unlike the U.S., this revision is not one-sided to the high side. Full disclosure, we have been relentlessly on the high side of consensus for more than six months now, and remain there even with these revisions. Still, the deepening restriction measures in Canada, with the clear prospect of more in coming weeks—including new school closures in some provinces—have prompted us to trim our Q1 call to close to zero. Even with a stronger second-half rebound, courtesy of the vaccine (first injection just this week in Canada as well), this will clip the full-year estimate for GDP growth by half a point to 5.0%. But, at the same time, we are also lifting the view on 2022 on the upbeat vaccine developments by half a point to a sturdy 4.5%, leaving activity at the same spot as we had expected before by the end of that year. While we have trimmed our 2021 call, note that the risks appear evenly balanced; that is, there is still some serious upside risk to this forecast, and the recent strength in commodity prices, and financial markets in general, are certainly pointing in that direction.
Beyond the growth outlook, of course there are many, many other economic issues and concerns swirling in this tumultuous environment, which are mostly covered in the following Thoughts. But one pressing question we have fielded almost since the first days of the pandemic response is whether there is a risk that inflation could return amid the tidal wave of stimulus. These concerns may well grow louder in the coming year, especially if growth comes close to the upside possibilities. And the Fed has essentially told us that they will tolerate a bout of above-target inflation. As if on cue, Canada printed a high-side surprise for CPI of 1.0% y/y in November, and the spurt in oil to $49 points to further headline pressure. But also note that Japan, China and the Euro Area are all still posting outright declines in headline prices, while core inflation is effectively stuck in neutral in North America. Ultimately, while the tail risks for inflation have fattened, we believe that even in a world of a potentially rapid recovery, overwhelming slack in many sectors, and an overhang of unemployment for years, any burst in headline inflation will simply not be sustained.
U.S. Economy: Cheers to a Healthier Year
Following the worst year since 1946, the U.S. economy can only do better in 2021: the question is how much better? With the pandemic raging and Congress wrangling, the new year is likely to come in like a lamb, but it should go out like a lion as mass inoculations pave a return to near-normalcy.
With a second wave of the coronavirus now topping the first in daily caseloads and fatalities, more states are curbing business activity; mostly indoor dining, bars, gyms and some close-contact services. While the constraints are a pale imitation of the spring shutdowns—when factories and schools were shuttered—they could still cause the recovery to grind to a halt for a few months. Thankfully, Congress has passed another stimulus bill of around $900 billion that will extend support programs for the unemployed, assistance to small businesses, and moratoriums on tenant evictions. Though pending sign-off by the President, the bill will avert the loss of extended UI benefits for more than 12 million Americans, which would have sliced annual personal income growth by roughly 4 ppts in Q1. Instead, incomes will enjoy a nice pop from $600 rebates, allowing spending to avoid starting the new year like the last one, in a deep hole that it needs to climb out of.
Once we get past the turn of the year the COVID clouds will begin to part. The vaccine rollout will gradually put an end to the restrictions on activity, while slowly unleashing a year’s worth of pent-up demand for travel, indoor dining, and entertainment. The willingness to spend will be matched only by the ability to shop, as a mountain of excess savings (estimated at over 6% of annual GDP) has accrued during the pandemic. At the same time, rising equity and home values are padding household wealth, another source of spending. Low interest rates will support mortgage refinancings and household borrowing, driving a 5%-plus rebound in consumer spending in 2021. While home sales are likely to slip from recent 14-year highs, the housing market should remain strong. Home prices should keep rising and residential construction will stay firm amid the tightest resale markets on record and a potential upturn in immigration under a Biden presidency.
Powered by the need to expand digital platforms for customers and workers, business spending has rebounded sharply, and will receive an extra lift in 2021 from rising commercial structures beyond the already-ample need for industrial and warehouse space. Multi-family housing in major cities will get relief from easing pandemic anxiety, allaying recent downward pressure on rents, notably in San Francisco and New York. But don’t expect office construction to return to pre-virus levels, as a partial shift toward remote work will reduce long-term demand. Some office buildings will need to be repurposed along multi-channel lines for working, living, and shopping including online fulfilment. Slower to return will be bricks-and-mortar retail, as millions of converts have taken the online route during the pandemic—e-commerce generated 14.3% of U.S. retail sales in the third quarter, up 3 ppts from late last year.
The economy is expected to grow 4.5% in 2021, the best year since the 1999 tech boom. The jobless rate should fall from 6.7% currently to 5.3% by year-end, though it could take until 2023 to fully recover the initial 22 million plunge in payrolls. The range of uncertainty around our forecast remains wide. Major downside risks include possible glitches in the vaccine rollout, an adverse mutation of the virus, and the unwinding of fiscal support in the spring. One threat we probably won’t need to worry about is a spike in inflation (and interest rates), given the dynamic duo of lofty unemployment and advanced automation. More likely is a correction in asset prices if they run too far ahead of fundamentals. Unlike in 2020, however, there’s also substantial upside for the economy. A smoother rollout of vaccines could lead to early herd immunity. As well, consumers could simply “let loose” after spending a year in COVID prison. A Democrat sweep of the two Senate runoff seats on January 5 would also usher in more fiscal stimulus and a wave of new spending on infrastructure, education, housing, child care and the environment, with some offset from higher corporate income taxes and tighter regulations. The only certainty about the coming year is that it won’t be boring—though we could stand for much less excitement than the past year.
Fed Policy and U.S. Rates Outlook
We look for the Federal Reserve to remain steadfast as 2021 unfolds, maintaining a policy bias to increase accommodation further if necessary, particularly during the first third of the year as surging COVID-19 cases and consequent increases in business and social restrictions weigh on economic growth.
On December 16, the FOMC repeated that it would maintain the 0%-to-0.25% fed funds target range “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”. But, it committed more concretely to “continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals”, compared to the prior looser commitment to purchasing “over coming months… at least at the current pace”.
This more accommodative policy step was not as big as it could have been (e.g., increasing the pace and/or weighted-average-maturity of purchases), likely reflecting the FOMC’s upgraded medium-term economic outlook (thank you, vaccines) and anticipation of more accommodative fiscal policy.
Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 on December 21, but, at the time of writing, it was uncertain whether President Trump would sign it. The omnibus bill includes the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and other pandemic-related measures. Weighing in at 4.3% of nominal GDP, the $900 billion relief package will go a long way in helping the U.S. economy ride out COVID’s winter wave. The largest components include $284 billion to reopen the Paycheck Protection Program, $166 billion for a second round of direct payments to individuals and families, and $120 billion to extend enhanced unemployment benefits (through March and April).
In the Summary of Economic Projections, the ‘dot plot’ showed only 5 of 17 participants pencilling in a rate hike by the end of 2023, just one more than in September despite the upgraded medium-term economic outlook. For 2021-22, real GDP growth is 0.2 ppts higher with the jobless rate 0.4-to-0.5 ppts lower, and the CBO-defined output gap closes by 2022-end instead of after 2023. However, the top of the central tendency range of inflation projections only gets above 2.0% (to 2.1%) in 2023, far from the criterion to “moderately exceed 2 percent for some time”.
Our other working assumption is that the Fed won’t tighten until early 2024, with the net risk weighing on the side of sooner action. With policy rates remaining at their effective lower bound at least until 2023, the front-end of the yield curve should remain restrained apart from what separate demand and supply pressures might materialize in the bond market, pressures that matter more for the back-end of the curve. Big budget deficits are projected to persist, keeping Treasury supply pressure on the boil. Meanwhile, investor risk appetites should be whetted as the rollout of vaccines brightens economic prospects and the attraction of riskier asset classes. Not helping this pending imbalance, beyond the next 12 months, we expect the Fed to start tapering purchases and to have stopped growing its balance sheet within the next 24 months.
However, any prospective increases in longer-term bond yields should be well-checked by policy rates remaining ‘low for long’, and inflation pressures remaining well-contained by economic slack (at least for a couple of years) along with the secular forces of disinflation from technological change (a trend accelerated by the pandemic) and an aging population. For example, we look for 10-year Treasury yields to average around 1.25% by the end of 2021.
Finally, after averaging record highs in April 2020, at the peak of pandemic panic, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has slipped about 9.0% reflecting several factors including improving investor-perceived global economic prospects and ebbing risks; U.S. policymakers being relatively aggressive on both the QE and budget deficit fronts; and, the pandemic hitting the U.S. relatively hard. The former factor, particularly, looks to weigh on the greenback further as the distribution of vaccines unfolds globally, weakening the unit another near-3% by the end of 2021.
Canada Rates Preview: Headed Higher
This past year will be remembered as challenging for one and all. The pandemic drove the Bank of Canada into unprecedented territory, with unconventional measures unleashed for the first time, in addition to bringing the policy rate to the effective lower bound. The coming year is expected to be far more subdued on the monetary policy front, with fiscal policy continuing to surge forward.
The Bank of Canada’s task for 2021 will be to ensure that financial conditions don’t tighten prematurely. Our base case is for policy rates to hold steady at 25 bps throughout the year. Rate hikes are off the table, though further easing is possible but would take a deterioration in the outlook (think vaccine issues or something like that). Potential easing measures are more QE, yield curve control, a funding-for-lending scheme and a micro rate cut.
On the QE front, the BoC is going to have to thread the needle with messaging. They already managed to taper once while keeping markets calm. They’ll have to manage that feat again in 2021. We anticipate a modest further tapering, driven entirely by a falling issuance profile for the federal government. The BoC doesn’t want to have too large a footprint, so a pullback once the issuance numbers are finalized is a logical step. In an effort to dampen the market impact, the Bank could again push its purchases further out the curve to minimize the reduction in overall stimulus. This is likely a Q2 story, since the budget usually isn’t released until late March or early April.
Beyond rates and QE, the Bank will also have to manage its forward guidance. January will already be a challenge with the vaccine timeline far more optimistic than they assumed in the October MPR. However, the increasing breadth of COVID restrictions put in place in recent weeks suggests there’s some notable downside to Q1. Even if Q4 is a bit better than the BoC projected, a weak Q1 could be enough to keep the timing of the output gap closing in 2023. Indeed, as noted above, the Bank does not want to prematurely tighten financial conditions, so they’ll likely try to stick with the 2023 forward guidance as timing for rates liftoff for as long as possible.
Finally, the BoC will renew its inflation targeting agreement with the Government of Canada in the coming year. While changes are possible, a mildly modified version of the status quo seems like the most likely outcome at the moment. A small potential tweak might be a greater focus on the 1%-to-3% target band rather than the 2% mid-point. That would provide a bit more policy flexibility, though their current flexible inflation target regime arguably already provides similar room to navigate. Note that Deputy Governor Beaudry’s recent speech hinted in that direction; “But rest assured we will not overuse QE and overshoot our 1 to 3 percent target range for inflation. The exit strategy for our QE program is tied to our inflation goals.”
Looking at the Canada curve, our call for policy rates to stay at the lower bound as the economy continues to recover points to ongoing steepening pressure. While longer-term rates look to rise, we still only have 10-year Canadas at 1.10% at the end of 2021. As we approach the latter stages of the year, steepening pressure could subside a bit as rate hikes potentially start coming into view.
For the loonie, it was a wild 2020 getting absolutely hammered at the height of the crisis, before fully recovering, and then some, to end the year at the strongest in over two years. We’re looking for 2021 to be a bit more subdued with modest strength through the course of the year. An ongoing recovery in the global economy is expected to lift commodity prices, supporting the loonie’s advance. The bigger story on the FX front is the anticipated US$ weakness, which will be tough for any currency to offset.
Canadian Regional Economic and Fiscal Outlook
All Canadian provinces have been hit by the pandemic, forcing some degree of economic disruption and digging fiscal holes of various depth. That said, Alberta, Manitoba and Quebec are clearly facing more stringent containment measures as 2020 winds down, which will weigh on 2021 calendar growth figures. All of these provinces are expected to lag the 5.0% national average, even as they presumably start to see better sequential growth prints toward the end of 2021Q1. With most regions of Ontario also facing some degree of containment, the province will also struggle to outperform; although it is arguably among the best-positioned for a strong recovery later in the year. Atlantic Canada was relatively insulated in 2020, and should see more subdued growth numbers in 2021 as a result, while British Columbia continues to look like an outperformer. Aside from COVID, the regional landscape will also be shaped by subdued energy-sector activity (although late-2020 price action is supportive of industry cash flow), a limited return of travel and tourism, and a continued lull in population flows that had been very supportive (especially in smaller provinces) in recent years.
Housing will remain in focus, as usual, but more so because of the roaring finish to 2020. Sales activity is expected to cool nationally, but prices should remain supported by improving confidence, still-tight supply and record-low interest rates. We expect the MLS HPI to rise 7% in 2021 with the first half of the year still characterized by outsized strength in single-detached homes, especially in smaller markets, partly offset by sluggish condo prices. Whether or not that rotation persists after the vaccine is widely administered is probably a question for the 2022 outlook, but we suspect core urban markets will ultimately find a solid footing again after further underperformance in the meantime. At the same time, more supply and outflows of nonpermanent residents could apply some pressure to urban rents in 2021.
The 2021 provincialfiscal outlook is still highly uncertain given that this year’s starting point for deficit levels is likely subject to meaningful revision. That said, the provinces that have issued FY21/22 guidance are pointing to deficit reductions somewhere in the order of one-third of FY20/21 levels, on average. That amount of consolidation would suggest the combined provincial deficit narrows to around $60 billion from about $93 billion this fiscal year. To be sure, the provinces will remain historically active borrowers and—depending on how much pre-financing takes place before FY20/21 closes—total requirements could top $140 billion, versus this year’s $171 billion pace. While the provincial deficit should be a still-chunky 2.5% of GDP, keep in mind that the federal government will continue to carry the vast majority of the fiscal load, with Ottawa’s deficit likely around $150 billion, or more than 6% of GDP. The big focus will be on how $70-to-$100 billion of yet-to-be-used stimulus spending gets allocated, and if any fiscal anchor re-emerges.
A Year of Global Healing
This is one year that everyone will look forward to with far more anticipation than ever before. The hope is that, in 2021, we can put the pandemic behind us and maybe, just maybe, remove the mask and indulge in a gathering with friends and family. That time will happen at some point and it won’t come soon enough. Look for solid economic rebounds after being crushed in 2020.
Europe was among the first hammered by the coronavirus and it spent most of 2020 protecting the economy. The ECB created a massive bond buying program to keep interest rates low and special facilities that allowed banks to borrow from the central bank at favourable terms on the condition that credit would keep flowing. And EU leaders managed, eventually, to agree on a €1.07 trln long-term budget and a €750 bln EU Recovery Fund, or the Next Generation EU, made up of grants and loans to those countries whose economies took the biggest hit from the lockdowns. That agreement did not come easily but at least there was a rare display of solidarity when it was badly needed. The funds will help Italy, France and Spain, for example, pick up the pieces of their economies and move forward. And as the virus is eventually brought under control, governments will roll out programs to help their fragile economies heal. But there will be a time when the crisis is over that the fiscal hawks will demand evidence from those who received Recovery Fund grants that spending is being reined in. That will be a late 2021/early 2022 story. Next year will also see a rebuilding of relationships between the U.S. and the EU, and perhaps a fresh start on trade issues such as the global digital tax and the long-running Airbus/Boeing dispute. On the political front, Germany’s federal elections will be key. A new head of the ruling CDU will be elected and that person will eventually replace Angela Merkel as Chancellor. Recall she declared in December 2018 that she would not run again at the next federal election after her party’s poor showings during that year’s state elections. It would be interesting to see how Merkel would fare today after her strong leadership during the pandemic, with the latest lockdowns notwithstanding. In any event, a new leader will be named by year-end.
The United Kingdom will begin 2021 with a fresh start on trade and will freely negotiate trade agreements on its own. As soon as January begins, the EU’s Common External Tariff will be replaced with the U.K. Global Tariff, which will apply to imported goods from countries without an existing trade agreement. Currently, the U.K. only has agreements in place with Japan and Switzerland; interim ones with Canada, Mexico and the U.S.; and, a fisheries deal with Norway. Talks are underway with Australia. And, negotiations with the U.S. will restart on a more positive note now that the British government removed the illegal clauses embedded within the Internal Market Bill. However, PM Johnson’s promise that Britain will be more prosperous outside the EU will likely not be realized in 2021 if a trade arrangement is not made with its biggest trading partner. The economy will likely feel the impact of supply disruptions (borders no longer freely open) and higher prices (tariffs now in place), which will hurt confidence and spending. It already had a taste of it after a number of European countries blocked borders and travel with the U.K. as the new strain of the virus spread in December.
Faster, higher, stronger. Yes, Japan is going to give the Summer Olympics another go, with the Games scheduled to run from July 23 to August 8. PM Suga is “determined” to host the Games, and all efforts will be made to have spectators at the events. If the Games are successful, they would bolster his chances of winning a full-term as LDP leader during the party’s September 2021 election.
China was likely one of only a few major economies to grow in 2020, as its early-year hit from the coronavirus gave it more time to recover. That, and the fact that its economy is still focused on goods production and less so on services, benefited GDP during this tumultuous year. Still, the estimated 2% increase would be the slowest in nearly half a century; now, we look for an 8% advance in 2021, even with a stronger yuan. On the foreign relations front, how President Xi gets along with President-elect Biden will be closely watched. Trade relations between China and the U.S., as well as the EU, should be less volatile, but even with the new occupant of the Oval Office, they will take time to warm up. Look for China to focus on trade elsewhere, particularly in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the massive trade agreement between a dozen countries that was signed in November.
Crude Oil Outlook: Tough Road Still Ahead
West Texas Intermediate crude is heading into the new year with plenty of wind behind its back. Thus, it would not be surprising to see WTI cross the $50/bbl threshold, at least temporarily, in the weeks ahead; especially if the rollout of vaccines accelerates and/or the pace of new COVID-19 caseloads markedly decelerates. Looking back, the current price of crude would have appeared almost inconceivable after prices plummeted into negative territory in April.
However, it is not all clear skies ahead for black gold as its supply and demand dynamics remain challenging. This explains why OPEC+, rather wisely, chose to scale down its production target cut by 0.5 mb/d to 7.2 mb/d in January and limit future cuts to no more than 0.5 mb/d per month. OPEC+’s new strategy should help prevent a large market imbalance (i.e., excess crude oil inventories) from building even if demand falters. Indeed, the near-term recovery in global oil demand, which is still roughly 7 mb/d below its pre-pandemic level, has already proven to be bumpy given that a number of countries are in the midst of a second wave of COVID-19 cases and economic lockdowns.
There is also a growing risk that non-OPEC+ supply could begin to escalate. This has been highlighted by the sudden surge in Libyan crude output to around 1.25 mb/d from zero in recent months. A wave of Iranian production could re-enter the market if President-elect Biden were to ease or eliminate sanctions. But the bigger wildcard actually lies closer to home, south of the 49th parallel. As WTI approaches $50, it raises the possibility that recently shut-in shale oil production could be restarted.
As the recovery in both supply and demand is likely to ebb and flow, much will depend on OPEC+’s commitment to balance the oil market. The arduous negotiation over revising the production target in early December revealed deeper divisions within OPEC+ than previously thought and suggests the risk of the cartel breaking down cannot be completely discounted. Furthermore, the spectre of monthly meetings to negotiate production targets could exacerbate the volatility of crude oil prices next year, compared to relative stability in recent months.
Key Takeaway: The prospect for WTI to head much higher will be difficult, especially following this past year’s rather remarkable rebound. That said, we have nudged our forecast for WTI to average $47 in 2021 (previously $45) and have penciled in $50 for 2022.
Important Read: How the COVID-19 pandemic fuelled a boom in Canadian stock promotion scams
Long article, but I'm pretty confident a lot of this sketchy behaviour is occurring right on this very sub: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-how-the-covid-19-pandemic-fuelled-a-boom-in-canadian-stock-promotion/ Cromwell Coulson, the CEO of New York-based stock trading platform OTC Markets Group, is getting sick and tired of trying to stomp out Canadian stock promotion scams. OTC plays host to more than 10,000 early-stage speculative stocks and every day it publishes a list of companies it has identified as running misleading stock promotions. In 2019, 30 per cent of troubling campaigns were by Canadian companies. But since the global outbreak of COVID-19 last winter, there has been a boom in pump and dump scams, in which shady promoters use any means necessary to push up the price of a company’s shares, then sell their stakes at huge profits just before the stock collapses. Those promoters often focus on a hot sector, be it mining, bitcoin, cannabis – and now, bogus coronavirus therapies. This year, 44 per cent of problematic promos on the OTC were spearheaded by Canadians. One day in September, they made up all 10 of the stocks the platform flags daily as the most suspect. Mr. Coulson says vulnerabilities in Canadian securities laws, the country’s patchwork system of provincial securities regulation and the lack of teeth to go after scam artists allow promotion schemes to flourish. “Our goal is not to run a dating site where everybody is beautiful, and smart and rich. Our goal is that the market price of securities represents the value,” he said. “There is this industry of promotion [in Canada] that is very opaque. I would like to see much more transparency.” In the United States, national regulatory oversight by Washington’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is much tougher than in Canada. As a result, Canadians – operating here or in other countries – have been behind many penny stock promotion scams for decades. Among the worst offenders in recent years, John Babikian, a.k.a. “The Wolf of Montreal,” who reportedly earned US$100-million manipulating penny stocks. “This is not a new phenomenon,” said Steven Peikin, co-director of enforcement with the SEC until August. “There has been outsize involvement of Canadian nationals and Canadian issuers in microcap schemes.” While greater powers and technological advances have enhanced the ability of Canadian regulators to pursue aggressive investigations, their track record in enforcement remains abysmal. The few offenders who are sanctioned are generally subject to temporary provincial bans from capital markets and non-enforceable fines. In the most recent fiscal year ended March 31, Canadian regulators concluded just two pump and dump cases, levying $105,000 in fines. Only a handful of cases are currently open. In the United States, since the beginning of the pandemic, the SEC has brought charges in six COVID-19 cases, in which companies or individuals allegedly made misleading statements about various treatments, tests and protective equipment, and issued 37 trading suspensions. Just this past summer, five Canadians were charged by the SEC in a US$160-million pump and dump swindle involving deceptive claims of therapies. Canada’s four biggest regulatory bodies, by comparison, have brought only one enforcement case and issued two trading suspensions related to COVID-19. This despite a warning issued by regulators in April that they were seeing an uptick in pandemic-related investment scams. The Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), an umbrella group that represents Canada’s 13 securities regulators, declined repeated requests for an interview. “I have not seen much regulatory action in Canada,” said Joseph Groia, a former director of enforcement of the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) and now one of Canada’s best-known securities litigators. “There’s a huge amount going on in the U.S.” Why isn’t more happening here? Over the past six months, The Globe and Mail interviewed more than 60 senior figures in regulation, litigation and law enforcement in North America, companies targeted by pump and dumps, a prolific white-collar whistle-blower, CEOs of stock exchanges, recipients of pump and dump materials, and stock promoters. As part of its investigation, The Globe also reviewed thousands of pages of disclosures and regulatory actions going back to 1987. The results are frustrating in many respects. While the breakneck pace of technological advancement means many fraudsters will likely stay one step ahead of regulators, plenty can be done to break the chain. The big question: Does Canada have the will to do it? Canada’s status as a haven for shady stock promotion is a function of market structure, history and culture. Our country has long had a heavy concentration of small resource companies that need to raise money early by going public – developing mines and oil reserves is capital intensive. But a small public float and a cheap stock price also make these stocks vulnerable to manipulation. By the 1930s, Canada was already notorious for telephone boiler rooms that targeted investors across North America. The advent of the electronic information age in the 1990s made disseminating fraudulent information infinitely easier. The ease of remaining anonymous online also made it much harder to catch offenders. And while misleading stock promotions used to be perpetrated mainly by company insiders, a growing number are now carried out by third-party shareholders. This past June, the RCMP and two provincial securities regulators confirmed they were investigating a cross-country stock promotion scheme touting tiny B.C. mining company Crestview Exploration. Among the recipients of a nationally distributed pump and dump letter about Crestview was Cynthia Campbell, head of enforcement at the Alberta Securities Commission, as well as the author of this article and retired RCMP white-collar crime investigator Henry Tso. “I have dealt with many of these files,” Mr. Tso said. “There’s tons of them. Stocks are being manipulated. There’s also lots of insider trading that never gets caught.” Crestview executives were frustrated, too. “We had no part of it. We want no part of it. It is a disgusting form of promotion,” CEO Glen Watson said. One of the biggest structural weaknesses in Canadian enforcement identified by many sources is the lack of a single Canadian securities regulator. The U.S., with a population of 328 million, has one federal securities act and one federal regulator. Canada, a country of 37.6 million, has 13 provincial and territorial regulators, and 13 disparate securities acts. Budgets, staffing and powers of enforcement also vary. British Columbia has tougher laws around stock promotion than other provinces, in part because the Vancouver Stock Exchange, which was merged into the Canadian Venture Exchange in 1999, was long known as grand central for penny stock scams. Alberta can lay quasi-criminal charges directly on offenders, but many other provinces can’t. Whistle-blower rewards offered by regulators also vary, with Ontario offering up to $5-million, but some other provinces offering nothing. Enforcement bans in one province aren’t recognized in others. The different rules across Canada and the lack of co-ordination mean that “wrongdoers can triage where they’re committing their wrongdoing based on the enforcement of various provincial regulators,” said Stephen Cohen, former associate director of enforcement for the SEC. Maureen Jensen, chair of the Ontario Securities Commission until this past April, said Canada is a mess of bureaucracy, infighting between commissions and provincial politics. “The problem is you have 13 acts, 13 legislatures that decide whether what their securities commission is asking for is worth their effort and 13 different groups of advisers who have a different view on how easy it should be to prosecute people in the financial market,” she said. “We should have a single securities regulator for Canada. It’s ludicrous that we don’t.” But repeated pushes for a national regulator have stalled when all provinces failed to agree, the most recent under then-prime minister Stephen Harper’s majority government, elected in 2011. Basic laws are also looser in Canada. In the U.S., paid stock promotion and amounts must be disclosed. In Canada, apart from B.C., paid promotion only has to be disclosed if it’s for “investor relations” services. There are many loopholes where payments don’t have to be disclosed – incredibly including campaigns that can be characterized as just “raising awareness” about a company. Even if paid promotion is disclosed, the amount doesn’t have to be specified. “No one knows who’s being paid for what,” Ms. Jensen said. “People can promote and not be visible.” The loose laws are one reason criminals still turn to Canadians for shifty stock promotion. In 2017, an individual indicted for securities fraud around a planned pump and dump of cannabis company BioCube Inc. told the FBI he intended on using Canadians to promote the U.S.-listed stock because regulation was much lighter here. U.S. authorities stopped the scheme before it occurred, and the CEO of the company was sentenced to three years in prison. Even if pump and dump offenders are caught in Canada, prison time is extremely rare. Fines and temporary provincial bans from running companies are much more common, but many offenders simply don’t comply with them. “These are people who don’t care about regulatory orders. There’s a good chance they’re not in that jurisdiction. If an order is made, they probably wouldn’t comply with it, " Mr. Groia said. “The only way you can deal with [a pump and dump] is find out who did it, track them down, prosecute them and send them to jail. Nothing else makes any sense.” But that is much easier said than done. Set up in 2003 to be the equivalent of the FBI’s white-collar crime unit, the RCMP’s Integrated Market Enforcement Team (IMET) was supposed to send more offenders to jail. Just two years later, the team staged a dramatic raid on Scotiabank’s headquarters on Bay Street, with a trailer-length van emblazoned with IMET’s logo and about a dozen police cars pulling up, and agents hauling out documents in connection with an investigation into one of the bank’s client companies. The idea was to turn RCMP officers into specialized financial market cops by bringing in Bay Street experts, such as forensic accountants, to help IMET. Yet when The Globe asked the RCMP for examples of notable pump and dumps that resulted in convictions, the force only cited one in the past 17 years. “The expectations and the hope that we would have a meaningful criminal enforcement program at the federal level have not come to pass,” Mr. Groia said. “IMET’s been a huge disappointment.” Seattle-based whistle-blower Yolanda Holtzee has spent almost two decades reporting pump and dumps to U.S. and Canadian regulators. In her dealings with IMET, she has been frustrated by the turnover in staff. “Junior members are never there long enough to be proficient,” she said. Vance Morgan, head of the biggest IMET team in Canada, says officers usually stay a minimum of three years, but many move afterward – some because they are promoted. One reason IMET’s record isn’t great, he says, is the lack of some extraordinary powers U.S. authorities have, including their ability to tap the federal terrorist act to obtain documents. Other experts say Canadian exchanges could also do a lot more to cut down on shady stock promotion and could look to the U.S. for guidance. If OTC Markets believes a company may be complicit in a promotion, or isn’t co-operating in disclosing additional information, it routinely slaps a “Caveat Emptor” label on the company and places a skull and crossbones icon beside its stock symbol on OTC’s website. “We don’t want to fix things in the back room, " Mr. Coulson said. “We want to put it out for investors to see. All the positives and negatives. That’s an approach which, short term, is painful and others will knock, but over the long term [it] builds more efficient markets.” Canada’s TSX Venture Exchange and Canadian Securities Exchange list many companies that also trade on OTC. But neither exchange comes anywhere close to shining such a harsh public spotlight on companies. Senior figures in North American regulation also point to basic structural holes at Canada’s junior stock exchanges: low fees and lax rules that make it easy for promoters to game the system and virtually guarantee huge returns from taking tiny untested companies public. The formula was established decades ago: Promoters identify a hot sector, acquire a dormant publicly traded shell company, change its name, issue “seed stock” to founders, do a few financing rounds at increasingly higher share prices, come up with a great “story” to sell to retail investors and, finally, take the company public. That gives the promoters the liquidity they need to sell at an enormous profit. “[For] the people who kind of run these things as scams, it’s all about getting it listed, getting the share price up and getting off your stock,” said Jamie Keech, a mining engineer and resources financier. Then there’s the matter – all perfectly legal – of testing the limits on how low companies can go when issuing seed stock. Founder shares have been issued at a cent a share, a tenth of a cent or even much less. Vancouver-based junior mining exploration company Fosterville South Exploration Ltd. issued 12.75 million shares for a total capital raise of $9. The cost for the founders was $0.00000705882 a share. When the company went public earlier this year, it closed its first day of trading on the TSX Venture Exchange at $1.08 a share, giving founders a paper return of 15,299,908 per cent. “They’re using legal means to hoodwink the public” Ms. Jensen said of the ease of going public in Canada. “Is it wrong? Absolutely it’s wrong.” Yet, like too many weaknesses of Canadian markets, it endures. So what can be done to stop the rot? Ms. Jensen says, even under existing provincial laws, it needs to be easier for regulators to move on suspected fraudsters. That includes speeding up the timeline for obtaining court dates, the power to compel people to testify like the U.S. Department of Justice does, and possibly banning the use of shell companies to go public. “It can’t be so difficult to prosecute people who are intentionally abusing the market, " Ms. Jensen said. The whistle-blower, Ms. Holtzee, says that many pump and dumps are now perpetrated by computer geeks in their 20s who are proficient in spreading fraudulent information over the web, and then disappearing by using encryption. Canadian regulators, she says, need to hire young STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) graduates – “dot connectors” – who can track scams as they’re being perpetrated and stop them right away. Mr. Groia also believes much more money should be spent on detection rather than prosecution. He says by investing as little as $1-million a year in computer-savvy investigators, Canada could cut pump and dumps by 60 per cent to 70 per cent. Some observers claim that stupid or ignorant investors are as much to blame as fraudsters for pump and dumps. If only they would vet an outlandish claim in a newsletter or on a stock promotion website against public filings, it would be obvious that a miracle COVID-19 cure is a con. But that’s not easy. SEDAR, the website that houses public flings by Canadian companies, is terribly designed. Only sophisticated investors are likely to know where to find critical information and then make sense of it. Canadian regulators need to push companies to make it far easier for average citizens to find what they’re looking for, and for filings to be written in language that can be easily understood. The past decade has seen pump and dump campaigns move from junior gold stocks, to marijuana, to bitcoin and back to gold recently with bullion prices soaring. And now there’s COVID-19. Ms. Jensen said the latest trend involves crooks manipulating the share prices of illiquid companies by “hijacking” the trading accounts of investors, allowing scammers to use other people’s money directly to commit crimes. The technology for those thefts exists. So does the technology to stop them. Unfortunately, it appears scammers and proponents of reform don’t think that will happen any time soon.
Covid-19 Update for December 23: 1,301 new cases, 1,772 recoveries, 19 deaths + Alberta Health pause on detailed case updates
Alberta Health has paused detailed public data updates until December 28. Minor updates will occur on all non-Christmas days until then
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media appearance by Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be on Monday, as will the next full data update. There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+1,301
93,781
Active cases
17,821
-490
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
7,342 (79.7%) in last 7 days
+3 (-0.1%)
—
Tests
—
+19,276 (~6.75% positive)
2,690,432
People tested
—
+5,636
1,626,216 (~376,700/million)
Hospitalizations
821
+19/+13 based on yesterday's post/portal data
3,207 (+53)
ICU
146
-6/-5 based on yesterday's post/portal data
558 (+10)
Deaths
—
+19
890
Recoveries
—
+1,772
75,070
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths Today
30-39
1
40-49
0
50-59
0
60-69
2
70-79
2
80+
14
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths (since yesterday):
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
For some reason, the total cases in the zones in the portal only add 731 cases. I added the missing cases to Calgary Zone as it makes the case numbers in Calgary Zone consistent
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
6,470 (-85)
+2,623
657,789
+487
36,475
+6
283
Central
1,391 (-71)
+395
143,024
+103
5,669
+0
36
Edmonton
8,427 (-217)
+1,995
545,754
+664
40,354
+12
452
North
1,092 (-29)
+354
150,830
+85
6,244
+1
63
South
390 (-22)
+210
101,387
+24
4,837
+0
55
Unknown
51 (-66)
+59
27,432
-62
202
+0
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.92 (0.90-0.93)
Edmonton
0.89 (0.86-0.91)
Calgary
0.97 (0.97-1.00)
Rest of Province
0.90 (0.85-0.95)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (change since yesterday) (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
32,981 (+550)
6,840 (-122)
25,763 (+667)
378 (+5)
Calgary
30,751 (+403)
5,626 (-61)
24,870 (+459)
254 (+5)
Lethbridge
1,364 (+10)
146 (-9)
1,210 (+19)
8 (+0)
Brooks
1,339 (+1)
33 (-2)
1,292 (+3)
14 (+0)
Red Deer
1,305 (+25)
358 (-24)
944 (+49)
3 (+0)
Fort McMurray
1,173 (+19)
205 (+1)
966 (+18)
2 (+0)
Grande Prairie
710 (+7)
129 (+1)
574 (+6)
7 (+0)
High River + county
706 (+2)
42 (-3)
657 (+5)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
475 (+1)
17 (-3)
444 (+4)
14 (+0)
Medicine Hat
425 (+6)
65 (-5)
354 (+11)
6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
373 (+1)
31 (-5)
342 (+6)
0
Cardston county
251 (+2)
36 (+1)
209 (+1)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
160 (+0)
13 (+0)
147 (+0)
0
Warner county
142 (+0)
5 (+0)
135 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
117 (+1)
7 (+0)
110 (+1)
0
Rest of Alberta
21,509 (+273)
4,267 (-259)
17,053 (+523)
189 (+9)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers:
122 schools are on Watch (-6)
172 schools have 2-4 cases (-6)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change based on yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
214 (-1)
47 (-2)
Edmonton
475 (+9)
83 (-4)
Central
79 (+5)
10 (+1)
South
14 (+1)
2 (+0)
North
39 (+5)
4 (-1)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Updates over the holidays
24th to 27th: No detailed updates online. Other than December 25th, minor updates will be provided via Twitter with approximate early estimates of cases, number of tests, and hospitalizations, ICU, and positivity
28th: Full update with breakdown of full days
29th and 30th: Full updates online
31st to 3rd: No updates online and preliminary data online
The lab teams and contact tracers will not have any changes
Vaccines and the Holidays
As many know, Moderna vaccine has been approved for use in Canada
Timing in Alberta is still being determined
None of this changes the serious current situation
Wants to stress how important it is to limit in-person interactions when possible
Thanksgiving caused a spike in cases; we can't afford a second round of that
School Cases
A slow increase in school aged children in fall, with a steep rise in November
In November, there was a shift in high school learning only, all three groups saw a plateau of cases in beginning of December
Since all school groups have trended together, it appears that the spread in these groups is dependent on spread in community
So, again, stick to your household for gatherings. Only use the most recent loosening if you absolutely have to
Closing Statements
While cases have started to fall, hospitalization has continued to rise
Changes haven't been easy, but have made a difference
Hopes all Albertans make the safe choice over the next few days. It's hard, but will protect everyone
Wishes Albertans continue to connnect with others
Thanks healthcare workers and hopes Albertans shows their support, as well as many groups for their resilience
Q&A - Vaccine
Paramedics feel they should be prioritized for vaccines. Why are they not?: Many healthcare workers and Albertans who would benefit from vaccine who are not in the first wave of vaccines. Important to remember that first groups were not about importance to system. Still making decisions about second wave
What specifically has Alberta government done proactively with Moderna vaccine?: Has prepared for Pfizer and Moderna being first two vaccines to arrive. Worked to ensure right infrastructure was available for both
When do you think we'll start inoculating with Moderna vaccine?: Working with federal government for a timeline. Doesn't expect over the weekend
Q&A - Other
What can parents expect in the second semester?: Looking at all lessons from first semester. Currently planning a return to school, but Albertans have a large role to play in whether or not it happens
Coach for AJHL is fined for speaking to media about Covid. Response?: Hasn't seen specifics about of the situation. Critical people are able to speak about their experiences, but also to share accurate information. People shouldn't be shamed for having Covid-19, but doesn't know enough about the situation to speak to either side in this case
Have the Oilers/Flames been given approval to play in Alberta?: Have spoken about training to teams. They have been given those exemptions. Still in discussion for return to play (an country-wide discussion)
Update at ER outbreak at Peter Lougheed? Are workers safe?: Not aware of specifics in the outbreak and defers to AHS. Speaks more about the general measures used for outbreaks
Massage therapists were exempt yesterday. Why not athletic therapists?: Decision was made based on regulation (interjection: Dr Hinshaw specifically notes regulated college...I am not aware enough of the difference to speak about what this may refer to). Can't speak to decision in other provinces
Are we expecting a spike this Christmas given Thanksgiving?: Depends on Albertans. Notes there was no legal order for social gatherings at Thanksgiving. Appeals to Albertans to not accelerate spread
Covid-19 Update for December 22: 1,021 new cases, 1,864 recoveries, 11 deaths + Changes of Public Health Restrictions for 7 days
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media appearance by Premier Jason Kenney, Minister of Health Tyler Shandro, and Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be tomorrow. There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+1,021
92,480
Active cases
18,311
-854
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
7,339 (79.8%) in last 7 days
-349 (-1.1%)
—
Tests
—
+14,304 (~7.14% positive)
2,671,156
People tested
—
+4,038
1,620,580 (~375,395/million)
Hospitalizations
802
+7/-2 based on yesterday's post/portal data
3,154 (+34)
ICU
152
+0
548 (+6)
Deaths
—
+11
871
Recoveries
—
+1,864
73,298
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths Today
40-49
1
50-59
0
60-69
1
70-79
4
80+
5
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths (since yesterday):
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
For some reason, the total cases in the zones in the portal only add 731 cases. I added the missing cases to Calgary Zone as it makes the case numbers in Calgary Zone consistent
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
6,555 (-183)
+1,551
655,166
+339
35,988
+2
277
Central
1,462 (-89)
+383
142,629
+96
5,566
+2
36
Edmonton
8,644 (-503)
+1,236
543,759
+441
39,690
+4
440
North
1,121 (-16)
+571
150,476
+124
6,159
+2
62
South
412 (-49)
+223
101,177
+23
4,813
+1
55
Unknown
117 (-4)
+74
27,373
-2
264
+0
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.92 (0.90-0.93)
Edmonton
0.89 (0.86-0.91)
Calgary
0.97 (0.97-1.00)
Rest of Province
0.90 (0.85-0.95)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (change since yesterday) (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
32,431 (+369)
6,962 (-405)
25,096 (+772)
373 (+2)
Calgary
30,348 (+301)
5,688 (-148)
24,411 (+447)
249 (+2)
Lethbridge
1,354 (+15)
155 (+0)
1,191 (+14)
8 (+1)
Brooks
1,338 (+0)
35 (-7)
1,289 (+7)
14 (+0)
Red Deer
1,280 (+18)
382 (-33)
895 (+50)
3 (+1)
Fort McMurray
1,154 (+25)
204 (+9)
948 (+16)
2 (+0)
High River + county
704 (+5)
45 (+3)
652 (+2)
7 (+0)
Grande Prairie
703 (+14)
128 (+3)
568 (+11)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
474 (+3)
20 (-3)
440 (+6)
14 (+0)
Medicine Hat
419 (+2)
70 (-8)
343 (+10)
6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
372 (+2)
36 (-7)
336 (+9)
0
Cardston county
249 (+4)
35 (-11)
208 (+15)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
160 (-1)
13 (-3)
147 (+2)
0
Warner county
142 (+0)
5 (+0)
135 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
116 (+0)
7 (+1)
109 (-1)
0
Rest of Alberta
21,236 (+264)
4,526 (-245)
16,530 (+504)
180 (+5)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers:
128 schools are on Watch (-1)
178 schools have 2-4 cases (-3)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change based on yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
215 (-9)
49 (+3)
Edmonton
466 (+10)
87 (+0)
Central
74 (+2)
9 (+0)
South
13 (+0)
2 (+0)
North
34 (+4)
5 (-2)
Statements by Premier Kenney Changes to Public Health Restrictions
Between December 23 and 28, single Albertans may attend 1 event at another household, with households hosting up to 2 single individuals
This was adopted based on advice from Minister of Heath with input from medical officers
Prohibition on larger gatherings are still in effect and asks Albertans to follow the guidelines - spread accelerated because of Thanksgiving gatherings
If we have large gatherings, we will head back into exponential growth again and overwhelm healthcare (he claims we can "cope" as is)
Hears claims the situation is exaggerated (e.g. - PCR testing overestimates positive tests), but counters with healthcare situation and asks Albertans turning Christmas into a superspreader event
Vaccine Update
25,350 Pfizer vaccine doses arrived and are being shipped to vaccine sites. They will go to critical healthcare and long term care workers facing continuing care and ICU
Edmonton and Calgary will receive 6,825 doses
Red Deer will get 1,950 doses
9,750 doses will go to 10 rural centres for critical staff (Brooks, Camrose, Drumheller, Edson, Fort McMurray, Grande Prairie, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Pincher Creek, and St Paul)
Alberta Health Services have been able to safely ship in ultra cold conditions
Of the first batch of vaccine, 3,074 doses have been administered since December 21
Q&A - Gathering Restrictions
Is this new exemption consistent with the "Uncle Covid" campaign which discouraged gatherings?: Still asking people to be careful (specifically notes for seniors). Asks Dr Hinshaw to add comments
(Dr Hinshaw's comments: If you have chronic conditions or are older, please ensure the individual is protected. Consider masks, hand sanitizer, and that you should still consider remote and virtual gatherings)
Will this exemption create a spike in cases?: All increase in contact can increase risk. Wants to balance with mental health of all people. Claims consistency with other jurisdictions and that risk is minimal
Why add this exemption now when people have cancelled?: Every other province has some form of exemption for Christmas. With a mental health concern in Alberta, if one small way can be given for those who feel isolated at Christmas, believes it is a reasonable tradeoff
Do you think this will be abused?: Believes if people were inclined to break the rules, they were going to anyways. Asks them to remember how Thanksgiving turned out. We know people got Covid-19 and passed away because of it
Q&A - Other
Premier has suggested ARCHES supervised consumption site in Lethbridge was closed partly because of an investigation of unaccounted funds. Now that the investigation has completed and founds are accounted, will it reopen?: Federal government grants licences, provincial government decides funding. Threshold for government spends tax dollars is very different from the threshold for a successful criminal conviction. Refers back to comments from Lethbridge community and damage done to it by the existence of the centre and the potential concerns about operation and expenses. No intention to reopen
With declining numbers, do you regret not bringing in stringent restrictions earlier?: No. Most impact right now were from the November restrictions
Do you still believe that the calls for a circuit breaker were misinformed?: Yes. No single jurisdiction has managed a 2 week sharp decline and it's false hope to claim a reset could occur in that short a time (shows the UK and Australia as examples)
Statements by Minister Shandro Additional Comments to Premier Kenney's comments
It looks like "we're finally heading in the right direction"
Have to continue this course to alleviate pressure off of the healthcare structure
Over next 10 days, aim is for 6,750 vaccine deliveries
Massage Therapy
Knows it is important for many
Massage therapy services may now be offered for patients with (1) a prescription, or (2) a referral from a physician or other regulated health professional
Regulations will apply
Q&A
Will the second batch of vaccines be able to expand delivery to Phase 1b (which includes additional groups such as home care staff)?: No, focused in the first groups until end of January. Suggests that additional approved vaccines could accelerate the process
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Changes in Gathering Policy
The exemption over the Christmas holidays aims for a balance of Covid spread and mental health
Recommends that individuals who have chronic conditions or are 65+ have physical distance and safety precautions are taken around them
Contact Tracing
AHS continuing to bolster contact tracing team
~1,200 currently working, 1,600 by end of year
Mental Health
It's normal to feel increased stress around the holidays
You are not alone with your feelings and your mental health is just as important as your physical. Do not hesitate to seek assistance
Q&A
Are there additional measures planned for the Covid-19 variant? Is it likely already here?: No evidence it is in Canada, but doing additional genetic testing understand this (it isn't currently done in every single sample). Emphasizes that health measures that help prevents spread of original strains of Covid-19 will also reduce the variant. Defers first question to Minister Shandro
(Minister Shandro's comments: Testing has expanded to travellers from UK)
(Later on, Premier Kenney wanted to add: No direct non-stop flights from UK currently. Only flights are from Holland. Asks federal government to expand the Alberta's travel pilot program across the country)
How much have the latest measures affected the active case numbers?: Important to remember day-to-day are a function of tests and spread. Positive rate remains ~7% (where it has been the past few days). Need to use multiple measures for context. The measures in late November had an impact to reduce cases and the additional restrictions have begun to decline them. High case rates still exist, however, and province needs to stay the course
How will 400 positions in contact be added in 9 days?: AHS work to hire has been ongoing for a while. This isn't 9 days to start, but recruiting the individuals in 9 days
Additional information will be logged below:
A final question was asked of Premier Kenney in French. My French isn't strong enough to fully translate
Covid-19 Update for December 21: 1,240 new cases, 1,267 recoveries, 9 deaths
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's media appearance by Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be tomorrow. There are currently enhanced measures in effect for the province of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+1,240
91,459
Active cases
19,165
-36
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
7,688 (80.9%) in last 7 days
-504 (+0.1%)
—
Tests
—
+18,401 (~6.74% positive)
2,656,852
People tested
—
+5,008
1,616,542 (~374,460/million)
Hospitalizations
795
+35/+28 based on yesterday's post/portal data
3,120 (+34)
ICU
151
+2/+0 based on yesterday's post/portal data
542 (+4)
Deaths
—
+9
860
Recoveries
—
+1,267
71,434
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths Today
70-79
1
80+
8
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths (since yesterday):
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
6,748 (-105)
+2,172
653,615
+448
35,649
+1
275
Central
1,551 (+43)
+615
142,246
+140
5,470
+0
34
Edmonton
9,147 (-7)
+1,512
542,523
+525
39,249
+8
436
North
1,137 (+30)
+376
149,905
+85
6,035
+0
60
South
461 (-16)
+208
100,954
+19
4,790
+0
54
Unknown
121 (+19)
+125
27,299
+23
266
+0
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated by Alberta Health on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.92 (0.90-0.93)
Edmonton
0.89 (0.86-0.91)
Calgary
0.97 (0.97-1.00)
Rest of Province
0.90 (0.85-0.95)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (change since yesterday) (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
32,062 (+419)
7,367 (-35)
24,324 (+446)
371 (+8)
Calgary
30,047 (+403)
5,836 (-91)
23,964 (+493)
247 (+1)
Lethbridge
1,339 (+6)
155 (-13)
1,177 (+19)
7 (+0)
Brooks
1,338 (+1)
42 (-2)
1,282 (+3)
14 (+0)
Red Deer
1,262 (+27)
415 (-16)
845 (+43)
2 (+0)
Fort McMurray
1,129 (+6)
195 (-7)
932 (+13)
2 (+0)
High River + county
699 (+2)
42 (-1)
650 (+3)
7 (+0)
Grande Prairie
689 (+9)
125 (+3)
557 (+6)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
471 (+3)
23 (+3)
434 (+0)
14 (+0)
Medicine Hat
417 (+6)
78 (-1)
333 (+7)
6 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
370 (+4)
43 (+2)
327 (+2)
0
Cardston county
245 (+1)
46 (-1)
193 (+2)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
161 (+2)
16 (+1)
145 (+1)
0
Warner county
142 (+0)
5 (+0)
135 (+0)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
116 (+0)
6 (+0)
110 (+0)
0
Rest of Alberta
20,972 (+351)
4,771 (+122)
16,026 (+229)
175 (+0)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers:
129 schools are on Watch (+3)
181 schools have 2-4 cases (+12)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change based on yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
224 (+4)
46 (+3)
Edmonton
456 (+28)
87 (+0)
Central
72 (+0)
9 (+0)
South
13 (+1)
2 (-1)
North
30 (+2)
7 (+0)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Some commonly asked questions
There are questions about what is outdoor recreation. Even 4v4 shinny hockey (or any outdoor activity where individuals come within 2m of each other) isn't allowed
Individuals where have isolated after a positive do not require a negative test before going back to work. They need to clear their isolation period
Reminder to employers that employees are legally required to isolate for this period and shouldn't be pressured to return to work
Cases
Active cases in 448 schools (~19%) for 1,992 cases
Positive signs, but situation is still serious with healthcare system under strain
We should seek to continue to this trend
UK Identified Covid-19 strain
This weekend, the federal government restricted flights from UK for 72 hours because of a genetic variant of Covid-19 virus
Virus believed to have higher rate of spread
At this time, variant does not appear to cause more severe symptoms nor affect any of the current protocols (e.g. - testing)
Work underway with international groups to better understand this variant
No known cases in Alberta
While not unusual for viruses, this is being taken seriously
Any travellers from the UK in the last 14 days should receive a Covid-19 test, even if asymptomatic
AHS will contact all individuals in this category
Any travellers from UK must enter quarantine, even if part of the border testing pilot
Q&A - Vaccine
Are CERB payments fuelling overdoses in Alberta?: Believes this is not unique to CERB payments. Acknowledges correlation that one can draw. Focuses on the importance of supports that are available for individuals with substance abuse disorders
Who made the decision to not add paramedics to Phase 1 vaccine deployment?: Phase 1 is for those at the highest risk of severe outcomes, the people who care for them, and the sides of healthcare under highest employment stress. Sometimes people perceive this as taking people "off a list". "Critical service" isn't the only requirement
With prison outbreaks, how high should correctional facility inmates be?: Their living conditions certainly has high risk of spread. No decision made for Phase 2. Happened to discuss the situation last week and lots of hard work on the subject. Unfortunately, like long term care, such facilities can have spread move very quickly with such high community transmission
Q&A - UK
Would our current testing even identify the Covid strain?: Testing in Alberta does involve genetic analysis. Small possibility of introduction of strain into Canada and will be watched closely. No evidence to suggest it has appeared in country, however
Is testing for travellers a must?: Strongly recommended for all individuals who spent time in UK (regardless of where they flew from)
Will this mean border pilot test must end?: No contemplating a stop to it, but targeting a specific group of travellers. Drew a similar question to a similar strain identified over the summer
Q&A - Other
Many people plan to ignore health regulations. Should people alert law enforcement?: Disappointing to hear and possible that people don't understand the severity of the situation. Consider what your neighbour would want for you if they saw it happen. Ideal to have good relationship with neighbours - maybe let them be aware of the situation
Have staff been assigned to the Butterdome mobile unit?: Defers to AHS. Repeats that potential use of the unit will depend on Albertans. If we do not "bend the curve down", it may need utilization
What is the position of government of NHL play in Alberta?: Has had conversation with all medical officers that are relevant. Working to ensure here is a path forward that ensure health of provinces is kept
Some religious gatherings aren't following rules on direction of the faith leaders. What can the province do if they are willing to brazenly defy the rules?: Worked hard to deal with situation collaboratively. Majority have been very hard working in the situation. Opportunities exist to continue to engage positively. Education, then support are the first steps. Continuing to put community at risk can result in enforcement
There seems to be growth in oil sands site outbreaks. How can you keep these individuals isolated?: Working with companies to ensure additional measures can come in place if needed and to ensure the individuals can safely take themselves home. If they can't get home, have been working with company to ensure isolation spaces are available
Additional information will be logged below:
Edit 1 - I had listed a death in Red Deer. That was an error. All deaths were in Calgary and Edmonton today.
Covid-19 Update for December 17: 1,571 new cases, 1,845 recoveries, 30 deaths
Data is taken from the Covid-19 portal and today's press availability by Dr Deena Hinshaw. Dr Hinshaw's next availability will be tomorrow. There are currently enhanced measures in effect for multiple regions of Alberta. This link provides a quick summary of which ones are in effect for different regions of Alberta. Top line numbers:
For values where "Current" and "Total" are the same, I have left results under Total
Value
Current
Change
Total
Total cases
—
+1,571
86,168
Active cases
19,865
-304
—
Cases with "Unknown source"
9,135 (82.2%) in last 7 days
+37 (+0.4%)
—
Tests
—
+19,968 (~7.87% positive)
2,582,185
People tested
—
+6,668
1,594,242 (~369,294/million)
Hospitalizations
763
+14/+2 based on yesterday's post/portal data
2,935 (+73)
ICU
138
-1/-3 based on yesterday's post/portal data
515 (+9)
Deaths
—
+30
790
Recoveries
—
+1,845
65,513
Age Range of Deaths
Age Bracket
Deaths Today
50-59
2
60-69
1
70-79
6
80+
21
Spatial distribution of people tested, cases, and deaths (since yesterday):
All other values are compared with respect to yesterday
Zone
Active Cases
People Tested
Total
New Cases
Total
New Deaths
Total
Calgary
7,043 (-79)
+2,713
644,129
+552
33,672
+12
256
Central
1,462 (+4)
+721
139,802
+126
4,940
+1
28
Edmonton
9,525 (-190)
+2,463
535,322
+760
36,925
+17
396
North
1,214 (-31)
+361
148,361
+87
5,726
+0
57
South
541 (-12)
+252
99,909
+34
4,674
+0
52
Unknown
80 (+4)
+158
26,719
+11
231
+0
1
Effective Reproductive Number (R, or Rt)
What % the confidence interval represents isn't stated
The value is updated on Mondays
Zone
R Value (Confidence interval)
Province-wide
0.98 (0.96-1.00)
Edmonton
1.00 (0.98-1.03)
Calgary
0.92 (0.90-0.95)
Rest of Province
1.01 (0.98-1.06)
Spatial distribution of cases for select cities and regions (change since yesterday) (cities proper for Calgary and Edmonton):
City/Municipality
Total
Active
Recovered
Deaths
Edmonton
30,210 (+581)
7,707 (-183)
22,170 (+749)
333 (+15)
Calgary
28,305 (+482)
6,114 (-47)
21,961 (+517)
230 (+12)
Brooks
1,324 (-1)
34 (-4)
1,276 (+3)
14 (+0)
Lethbridge
1,305 (+13)
196 (-8)
1,102 (+21)
7 (+0)
Red Deer
1,142 (+31)
417 (+0)
725 (+31)
0
Fort McMurray
1,082 (+20)
215 (-4)
865 (+24)
2 (+0)
High River county
683 (+6)
35 (-1)
641 (+7)
7 (+0)
Grande Prairie
647 (+10)
126 (+6)
514 (+4)
7 (+0)
Mackenzie county
466 (+0)
21 (-4)
431 (+4)
14 (+0)
Medicine Hat
396 (+4)
84 (-1)
307 (+5)
5 (+0)
I.D. No 9 (Banff)
362 (+0)
53 (-12)
309 (+12)
0
Cardston county
235 (+3)
54 (+2)
175 (+1)
6 (+0)
Wheatland county
157 (+1)
14 (+1)
143 (+0)
0
Warner county
143 (+2)
10 (-1)
131 (+3)
2 (+0)
Wood Buffalo municipality
115 (+0)
6 (+0)
109 (+0)
0
Rest of Alberta
19,596 (+419)
4,779 (-48)
14,654 (+464)
163 (+3)
Other municipalities with 10+ active cases is given at this link Schools with outbreaks are listed online. Quick numbers:
126 schools are on Watch (-2)
168 schools have 2-4 cases (-1)
Spatial distribution of hospital usage (change based on yesterday's post):
Hospitalization zone are where the patient is receiving care, not zone of residence
Zone
Hospitalized
ICU
Calgary
229 (+20)
40 (+1)
Edmonton
420 (+2)
83 (-4)
Central
64 (-4)
4 (+0)
South
16 (-4)
4 (+0)
North
34 (+0)
7 (+2)
Statements by Dr Hinshaw Vaccine Distribution
394 healthcare workers have received first dose of vaccine
Knows there is desire for vaccination to occur as quickly as possible
It will take time to get enough vaccine for each Albertan. Please be patient and supportive during this period
Knows there are some who have not been given a call yet and those who have received one who shouldn't. This is a quick process and such situations aren't unexpected
Cases
Today's death total doesn't reflect the number of deaths that occurred yesterday, but they were reported yesterday
Active cases in 450 (~19%) schools, with combined 1,966 cases
126 schools on watch list (5+ active)
Holidays
We are 1 week away from some statutory holidays
Holiday plans are top of mind for many people. However, this can and must be celebrated differently
Celebrations with people outside of the household are not only prohibited, but also the wrong thing to do
Knows Albertans want to do the right thing - celebrate with only your household or 2 close contacts if you live alone
Other celebrations should be virtual
For some Albertans, bending the rules may seem the compassionate choice. However, the compassionate choice should be to follow the rules
We have seen many cases where a person with mild symptoms or asymptomatic spreading cases to many
These orders are not recommendations, but legal restrictions and everyone must do their part
The holidays will be difficult for many people, especially in continuing care
Encourages Albertans to send shows of support to continuing care residence in your community
Q&A - Vaccine
Reports of Pfizer vaccine vials may hold extra doses, with additional doses that could be squeezed out of the vials. Is this true?: Pfizer vial contains a guarantee of 5 doses. Skilled immunization administrator may be able to get 6 doses. The "little extra" is used when possible
What type of tracking of vaccines will occur?: Provincial software has been used for years to track vaccines with skilled individuals tracking the vaccines. Vaccine inventory management system has been available. Considers the province well positioned and should be able to track quantity and manufacturer of each vaccine at each depot
What lessons are being learned with the vaccine?: A single health authority in the province has been very helpful. Frontline has been extremely flexible and thanks them for it
Is AHS getting "swamped" with vaccine requests?: Can't speak to AHS, but many groups have asked about getting in line for vaccines right now. Knows that vaccines will benefit many groups, but asks for patience as current vaccine delivery is in small quantities weekly and using them for reducing severe outcomes first
Q&A - Other
How dangerous are the anti-mask and anti-lockdown rallies? (misinformation and spread risk) What would you want to see implemented?: Understandable to go through a series of emotions (specifically notes the stages of grief). Problem is when people disregard evidence - 30 deaths were reported in 24 hours today. These individuals are conducting risky activities for themselves and their community. Important to let people have their voices heard (references a demonstration document), but also to follow the guidance
There are pictures of a town hall, where Jason Kenney, Kaycee Madu, and Tracy Allard are not wearing masks. Did you ask them to wear masks?: The masking requirements were followed as exemptions were made for specific workplace conditions
NHL update?: Speaks with local teams regularly about player training. Regulations for playing games hasn't been determined
Many people go to religious services for holidays. Is a 15% capacity acceptable?: Spoke to faith communities and has given instructions and guidance. Vast majority of the communities have responded and have moved online or drive-in. Combination of those and additional restrictions (e.g. - spacing between groups) improve safety. Final recommendation though is to minimize in-person contact
TraceSafe to Provide Contact Tracing at the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship
TSF.CN (ASK @ 0.70) Tracesafe Inc., a global leader in wearable safety tech, including contact tracing and quarantine management, is pleased to announce it will be the exclusive and official contact tracing partner of the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship in Edmonton, Alberta from December 13, 2020 to January 5, 2021. Powered by the TELUS Communications (T / TU) world-leading wireless network, TraceSafe will provide staff members and players with TraceSafe wearable safety tech solutions across the tournament bubble. Hockey Canada has developed strict protocols to keep close to 1,000 players, team staff, members of the media, officials, and support personnel safe throughout the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship. TraceSafe has been selected to provide its comprehensive contact tracing solutions to ensure compliance with health and safety protocols throughout the tournament. To promote the safety of all participants and the community at large, every tournament member will be required to self-isolate upon arrival in their individual hotel room and will be supplied with a TraceSafe wristband that will enable event organizers to ensure that they self-isolate for the required time. Additionally, throughout the event, all teams and tournament staff will have TraceSafe's contact tracing beacon embedded in their event credentials. TraceSafe's low powered BLE technology will prompt physical distancing reminders and provide real-time contact tracing for all participants. TraceSafe wearable safety tech will be complemented by regular COVID-19 testing throughout the event. Data collected by our wearables within the bubble and during the championship is pseudonymized and secured using top-level encryption. Our technology only monitors interactions with other people within authorized locations. Localized contact tracing cannot function once the participant leaves the contact site, eliminating fears of being "always-on". No smartphone app download required. The 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship will be held using a single-venue format in Edmonton without spectators. The host venue was one of two restart arenas used for the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs and has experience in bubble crowd management during COVID-19. TraceSafe has expertise in sports and venue management and this partnership will further solidify TraceSafe as a leading option for venues and sports teams looking to resume action safely. Executive Quotes "We are proud to be working with TELUS and Hockey Canada to bring TraceSafe's suite of technology in professional sports and venue management to the World Junior Hockey Championship to ensure all teams, players and staff are safe and secure," said TraceSafe CEO Wayne Lloyd. "This opportunity to support the next generation of athletes with our technology speaks to the growing reputation and trust of the TraceSafe suite of products throughout the international sports community." "As we continue to prepare for the 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship, we are excited to work with TraceSafe to ensure the health and safety of all participants and the community at large in Edmonton," said Dean McIntosh, vice-president of events and properties with Hockey Canada. "We are grateful to TraceSafe and TELUS for their commitment to participant health and safety, and we know this leading technology will help Hockey Canada and the local organizing committee host a safe, successful event." "Ensuring the safety and connectivity of the players, staff and other participants at this year's World Junior Hockey Championship is of paramount importance to TELUS," said Andrew Turner, Vice President of Strategic Operations at TELUS. "We are pleased to partner with TraceSafe and Hockey Canada, leveraging our world-leading networks and IoT capabilities to enable comprehensive and secure protection and connectedness throughout the tournament, ensuring Canadians have the opportunity to cheer on our reigning champions as they once again go for gold." About TraceSafe powered by TELUS What does it mean to be powered by the best? During the World Juniors, TraceSafe's quarantine management and contact tracing solutions will be powered by TELUS. Their powerful network will ensure uninterrupted connectivity for all TraceSafe wearables and gateways. All wearable devices will be branded with "TraceSafe powered by TELUS". About TraceSafe TraceSafe is a full suite of real-time location management services and contact tracing solutions enabled through advanced low power Bluetooth beacons and enterprise cloud management. TraceSafe's leading cloud management solution ensures both user privacy and comprehensive administrative control. TraceSafe's patented contact tracing bracelet has already been deployed in mission-critical quarantine applications around the world in partnership with leading governments. In addition to their government work, TraceSafe is developing leading-edge solutions for Enterprise, Healthcare, Education, Government and large-scale venue management. About TELUS TELUS (T, TU) is a dynamic, world-leading communications and information technology company with $15.3 billion in annual revenue and 15.7 million customer connections spanning wireless, data, IP, voice, television, entertainment, video and security. We leverage our global-leading technology to enable remarkable human outcomes. Our longstanding commitment to putting our customers first fuels every aspect of our business, making us a distinct leader in customer service excellence and loyalty. TELUS Health is Canada's largest healthcare IT provider, and TELUS International delivers the most innovative business process solutions to some of the world's most established brands. Driven by our passionate social purpose to connect all Canadians for good, our deeply meaningful and enduring philosophy to give where we live has inspired our team members and retirees to contribute more than $700 million and 1.3 million days of service since 2000. This unprecedented generosity and unparalleled volunteerism have made TELUS the most giving company in the world. For more information about TELUS, please visit telus.com, follow us @TELUSNews on Twitter and @Darren_Entwistle on Instagram. About Hockey Canada Hockey Canada is the governing body for hockey in Canada and a member of the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF), with a membership through its 13 member associations of over 750,000 players, coaches and officials. Hockey Canada is a not-for-profit organization that creates leading-edge hockey development programs for its members to deliver in communities across Canada; provides consistent rules and regulations and various other membership services from coast to coast to coast; manages numerous regional, national and international hockey championships and events; and leads the operation of all teams that represent Canada in international competition. Hockey Canada's mission is to lead, develop and promote positive hockey experiences. For more information on Hockey Canada, please visit HockeyCanada.ca or follow through social media on Facebook and Twitter. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tracesafe-contact-tracing-2021-iihf-120000807.html
As Ottawa prepares to unveil its Clean Fuel Standard, industry warns of refinery shutdowns
CALGARY – Canada’s federal government is poised to unveil its long-awaited Clean Fuel Standard by the end of the year, which executives say is concerning for a wide range of industries that may not have sufficient time to make dramatic changes before new regulations come into effect in 2022. The Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) will be published in the Canada Gazette by the end of the year, Moira Kelly, spokesperson for Environment and Climate Change Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, confirmed to the Financial Post Wednesday. “The Clean Fuel Standard remains an integral policy in Canada’s climate plan, and will contribute to the government’s goal of exceeding its current 2030 target,” Kelly said in an email. Once the proposed standard is published, industry expects a 75-day comment period before the regulations are finalized and before compliance begins in 2022, that would leave companies scrambling to comply with the new regulations. Clean fuel standards in places like California require liquid fuels such as gasoline and diesel to be blended with additives like ethanol or other biofuels to reduce their emission intensity. Canada’s CFS will stipulate fuel providers, or refineries, must reduce their emissions by 12 per cent below 2016 levels by 2030. Details about the CFS are hotly anticipated by executives in a range of industries as the regulations will outline, for the first time, how quickly the industry will need to move to comply with new regulations. “The federal Clean Fuel Standard will help position Canada as a leading clean fuel producer by driving innovation and investment,” Kelly said. The standard will introduce a country-wide carbon credit trading scheme and include harsh per-tonne penalties. Going a step further, Canada will be the first jurisdiction in the world to extend its regulations to cover gaseous fuels, like propane or natural gas, and solid fuels, such as coal, by 2023. Ottawa’s goal for the CFS is a 30-megatonne reduction in the country’s carbon emissions by 2030. The biggest emissions reduction are expected to come from liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Canadian refineries and fuel distributors say they’re preparing investments and strategies to try to reduce their emissions between 20MT and 25MT, which would account for 83 per cent of the emissions’ reductions targets under the regulations, said Bob Laracque, CEO of Canadian Fuels Association, which represents petroleum refining and distribution companies. Right now, Canadian refineries blend about 7 per cent bioethanol and 2 per cent bio-diesel into the fuels they distribute. But Laracque said the government has not communicated how quickly refineries would need to boost their biofuel blends and the industry does not have sufficient time to prepare if major increases are expected in 2022. “We are concerned about the implementation timeline because if it’s too quick and we don’t have time to do the infrastructure changes,” Laracque said. He said the industry is asking for clarity on what the targets are each year for emissions reductions and how exactly carbon credits will work to allow the industry to avoid expensive per-tonne penalties. There is a wide range of estimates on how the CFS will affect gasoline and diesel prices, with some estimates as low as 2 cents per litre for fuel all the way up to 15 cents per litre. “If it’s not done right, we’re going to lose existing infrastructure,” Laracque said, adding that could include refinery closures in Canada. “If we’re not doing this right, we miss a huge opportunity for existing infrastructure, which will increase the cost of compliance.” Refinery shutdowns are not a new phenomena in Canada, as Shell Canada’s Montreal East refinery closed down in 2010 and Imperial Oil Ltd. shuttered operations at its Dartmouth, Nova Scotia in 2013. This year, North Atlantic Refining Ltd. announced it would close Newfoundland’s only refinery at Come By Chance as the COVID-19 pandemic knocked out demand for consumer fuels. But shutting down a refinery will lead to higher fuel costs for consumers and investment relocating elsewhere, said Dan McTeague, president and founder of Canadians for Affordable Energy and a former Liberal Party MP. “I think it’s going to have a significant impact,” McTeague said, adding that he believes that even without refineries shutting down, “it’s going to cost you anywhere from 10 cents to 15 cents per litre of gasoline.” While Alberta’s economy is the most dependent on the energy industry, markets such as Ontario and Quebec use more fuel and McTeague is expecting a larger impact in those markets given additional costs at refineries in the Sarnia region and in Quebec as refineries will scramble to source ethanol from the U.S. In a recent speech before the Calgary and Edmonton chambers of commerce, federal Natural Resources Minister Seamus O’Regan said the CFS was not intended to target a specific industry but to reduce emissions at the point of consumption across the country. However, the Alberta government has concerns about the soon-to-be unveiled regulations because many companies that will be listed as “fuel providers” are headquartered in Alberta, including oil companies that own refineries and fuel stations, as well as natural gas producers and electric utilities with gas-fired power plants. “Alberta continues to push for changes to the Clean Fuel Standard to address potential unintended consequences of the regulation such as losing investment and revenue to other jurisdictions and exposure for trade-exposed industries,” Environment and Parks Minister Jason Nixon said in an emailed statement. In order for the CFS to be successful, the legislation needs to fulfill its goal of reducing total emissions rather than layering an additional compliance penalty cost on industry, said Marla Orenstein, director of the Natural Resources Centre at the Canada West Foundation. Orenstein said the federal government has yet to publish a proper analysis demonstrating how the CFS, independent of other provincial initiatives, will reduce emissions or what the costs will be. She said it’s critical the CFS reduces emissions rather than just collects compliance costs or it will be considered a duplication of the existing carbon tax system, which Ottawa has already imposed. “You’ve promised a cost-benefit analysis and you’ve shown nothing,” Orenstein said, she said of the federal government. To alleviate fears of the worst-case outcomes and to ensure the regulations are effective, she said it’s important that the government to publish their analysis as soon as possible. “If we’re going to go all in on this, they need to be able to demonstrate that it’s going to be able to do what it says,” Orenstein said. https://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/as-ottawa-prepares-to-unveil-its-clean-fuel-standard-industry-warns-of-refinery-shutdowns
My Take on Individual Establishment's Responsibilities to Enforce Mandates
Just posted this (text to follow) as a response to the horrifying news article of the Edmonton woman who was violently attacked while attempting to enforce the Public Safety mandates in her pub. My righteous indignation only rose after my first reply, so here is a repost hoping that a few more of you see, and understand the tiniest amount of what your essential workers are dealing with in addition to the regular daily anxiety that every one of us (regardless of employment) are facing these days. On a personal note, I finally found a job after my longest unemployment stint since the age of 13. Customers have drastically dropped since the new regulations - I can't complain, because that is a hopeful indication that at least some people are following the new rules. I also cannot afford to turn away those few who still choose to patronize our business, nor can I physically or legally escort them from the premises. Just wear the effing mask for the max 30 minutes it takes you to patronize a grocery store/restaurant. If you genuinely can not, order pick up or delivery. Don't make hard working people choose between assault and the Coronavirus. We just need to work. And we wear the mask while on our feet and smile even though you can't see it, but hopefully can still sense and appreciate the genuine warmth we feel towards those keeping us in business. We want to like you, I promise. Just let us. ORIGINAL COMMENT: I’d like to take this opportunity to address some of the lists I have seen circulating calling for boycotts against specific establishments who aren’t rigorously enforcing all restrictions. While I support the practise of alerting the public to where they might most safely shop/eat out, etc... the average minimum wage employee has next to no authority or training to validate potential “medical exemptions”, proof of address (and therefore FOIP policies required to gather that info) and appropriate cohorts, etc. Let alone the balancing act of self defence, de-escalation, protecting other customers, and still maintaining enough business to keep their jobs. The burden should be on the police/peace officers who we are all paying to employ. If they are allowed to claim safety as a reason to sit by while mass anti-regulation protests occur, then why should your average retail worker or hostess be publicly denounced for maintaining their own safety and that of their co-workers and customers? At this point, the risk assessment I make on a daily basis is actually leaning more towards letting people flaunt whatever regulations they like. I am almost as afraid of anti-maskers as I am of COVID at this point. P.S.(A). minimum wage is still below living wage in most of Alberta (at least the city centres).
Hi alt-spite, you're not shadowbanned, but 75 of your most recent 94 comments/submissions were removed (either automatically or by human moderators).
Comments:
gebw2jy in canada on 02 Dec 20 (1pts):
It's cool to hate now but really I can't imagine wtf anyone would have done better at this point. It's easy to not listen to people and lock down everything. However that is having not much effect...
ge9sjft in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
I could pick him out of a lineup. And I wasn't there.
ge87jdq in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
Nah it'll be all foreign owned, we just work to extract resources out and pay rent
ge7vsff in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
Not to mention spending power. Everything is cheaper by far in the USA
ge7vm1e in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
Media successfully focused on blaming the provinces. Specifically conservative politics Money assured for next election. Good job really. Don't bite the hand that feeds
ge7jb7u in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
Deficit of 400 billion accounced. Less work force too. Taxes going up is an inevitable result
ge7j23k in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
A bar buys beer. Beer tax goes up, but the bars price doesn't (immediately anyways) It's somewhat expected that eventually the bar will raise that price. The GST though the bar collects on every...
ge7ito8 in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
Lmao paying for a VPN costs more than the GST would
ge7iq4g in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
I guarantee it's a line item just like anything else that pays GST. Like Netflix wouldn't put it there for people to see.... Liberals are trying to make it sound like they're sticking it to the man,...
ge7ig8x in canada on 01 Dec 20 (1pts):
How in God's name does charging 5% GST on Netflix change in any way, it's 5% every bill. Every bill I pay is 5% GST regardless of its popularity. They really, really don't teach much about taxes in...
ge6lzcf in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
K now how about 3 billion people? They KNOW there will be problems. Lots of them
ge6lnwq in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
They literally asked him. He didn't dodge the question.
ge6juss in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Some wild new vaccine that is relatively untested, that works differently than any proven vaccine does.. where the percentage having side effects might be moreso than the percentage that gets side...
ge6ilza in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Agreed. Using a signal jammer could make cars stop turning in bad places, etc. It absolutely could never work dependant on signal
ge6hpjk in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
CTV still pushes the anti Kenney harrrrrd. If they'd do it less, it would have more impact. Why should he personally address the boneheads anyways? Protests allegedly aren't a source of covid...
ge6h02e in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
If your work allows it, go rural. I made 150k and didn't know what to do with the money, 5 bedroom house about 300k with a giant backyard on a golf course. I put another 30k into it to make it...
ge6g09w in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
It's not so simple We are a small population country. There are major costs involved with having all nationaly owned corporations. To a big company they can absorb the operating costs as a blip on...
ge6fg9w in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Lol that's exactly it. We complain cell phones are too expensive and clamour for a USA company to come in to reduce prices. . Yet here we are complaining about foreign ownership. Do we want cheap...
ge6f3s2 in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
Yawn the US also thought we could turn China into more of a capitalist democracy by inclung them more. It didn't happen as they got even stronger commie leadership and are taking advantage....
ge6egvp in canada on 30 Nov 20 (1pts):
The wheat board was disbanded, the remements were sold. G3 I think it's called now, but not exactly "sold to Saudis", we didn't lose any autonomy on that one. Nobody has to use that company to sell...
gdtxnhl in canada on 28 Nov 20 (1pts):
We have nobody close to trump in Canada. Hard to ride that hate train.
gdtxg9c in canada on 28 Nov 20 (1pts):
So is stupidity Some break the mold. Try it out
gdtx6qd in canada on 28 Nov 20 (1pts):
You didn't read the article Every kind of fuckery you can do, baiting,.disabling safety parts, etc Cutting lines didn't make the traps illegally bait, gain illegal tags, and have thier safety remove
gdtwluy in canada on 28 Nov 20 (1pts):
"clearly" from the Cherry picked tidbit leaked.
gdsuscq in canada on 27 Nov 20 (1pts):
Yawwwn an old old prejudice Any party can have many examples of people who showed inclination against social change in the past.
gdlkecd in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
How is it a conspiracy when JT himself speaks of it openly? It's a wealth transfer scheme.
gdligxs in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
That's a month ago. Alberta tests more than anywhere and had the numbers to back it up. A month later the numbers rose, and they rose where masks were mandatory.
gdli7zr in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Anytime Trump is compared to any of our politicians I laugh. He's barely comparible to any US politician in 100 years. Taking a word and having a "gotcha " because it's a word trump used once is the...
gdlgq6j in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
There's that word again: "experts" They use them in every other story The same 20 people usually. I guess it works but there would be 100 people involved in making some decisions then "expert...
gdlgi7g in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Yes, If the politics weren't involved it would have been done and forgotten by now, only boring jobs and taxable dollars left as a memory
gdlafq1 in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
We do care, and realize shooting ourselves in the foot and removing ourselves from the market altogether wouldn't achieve anything.
gdlacyi in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
We can't control 95% of the oil market so you can ask China , USA, India, Russia , very politely to stop as well and then you might have something Also, get people to stop flying, driving,...
gdla6az in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
If the politics weren't involved it would have been done and forgotten by now, only boring jobs and taxable dollars left as a memory
gdl9ef3 in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
"the market" being moving goalposts and complete shambles of anything resembling regulatory framework. That ain't free market that's political
gdl82y5 in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Do what Alberta did. Going 25% of fire code allows smaller places to have customers rather than fully advantage the huge retailers.
gdksynn in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
I'm a con at the moment. That's totally true. Many rely on the false economy of ridiculous housing prices. I don't see this approach changing anytime soon. Moving to rural is an option for city...
gdksq52 in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Move to rural. Decent homes for 120k with good schools, high speed internet, larger centre 25 mins drive.
gdiew1m in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Lol I watch them but you can't say anything other than "fuck Kenney!" Or you're kicked out. It's a hateful place, even moreso than Canada here
gdienle in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Not sure what you mean, the data shows transmission is happening in social gatherings. It is not happening in gyms or small businesses where everyone must be masked and sanitize upon entry. Walk...
gdieets in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Very massive.
gdiecqa in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Transmission is happening at social gatherings It's not happening at lulu where you must be masked and sanitized and monitored.
gdie8zc in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
They're seeing transmission in teenagers. Not at the casino where people are standing around demanding you sanitize and wear a mask. These rules exist at the school too but in groups teenagers tend...
gdid7xa in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Correct, transmission is occuring in homes much more than at regulated and socially distanced businesses. Gyms in particular should stay open.
gdid2dj in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Based on where transmission is actually happening, in real life, keeping those particular businesses at 25% archives a lot while not unintentionally causes other health issues related to addictions,...
gdib130 in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
Well yeah but what about Trump? He's a big liar like pants on fire Millions of lives ruined and society crumbling might be a big deal where you come from, but Obama has the cool factor so you lose...
gdia71s in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
You didn't read the article Nevermind the hundreds of thousands in damages, good luck getting insurance to pay for it... Even if they do they'll take you over the coals for ten years till they...
gdi9y4c in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
I wish I could sell. Bankruptcy is an option to consider but have to hold out hope Land, homes, businesses all lucky to sell even at a loss where I live. Bankruptcy is all youre trying to avoid the...
gdi9mrb in canada on 25 Nov 20 (1pts):
That's a business idea right there. Landlord inc. Adding value in checking IDs and references I just patented it
gdenh9d in canada on 24 Nov 20 (1pts):
Be happy it isn't fucking with us to the same degree as others!
what are the new regulations for covid in alberta video
Minimum mandatory quarantine for 14 days for anyone who returned to or entered Alberta from outside Canada, or are a close contact of someone with COVID-19. Minimum mandatory isolation for 10 days for anyone who has a confirmed case of COVID-19, or have core symptoms that are not related to a pre-existing illness or health condition: cough, fever, shortness of breath, runny nose or sore throat. The Government of Alberta announced new public health measures on Tuesday December 8, 2020, updating previous restrictions announced on November 24, 2020. The further enhanced measures will be in place through the holiday season, until at least January 12, 2021. Workplaces and learning centres. Effective immediately, masks are mandatory province-wide in all indoor public places, places of ... Alberta bans social gatherings with $1,000 fines for non-compliance as COVID-19 cases continue to rise Back to video “That’s the absolute minimum metric goal that we must achieve by Dec. 15 ... On December 8, 2020, the Government of Alberta released new province-wide COVID-19 restrictions effective until at least January 12, 2021. These restrictions are in response to a large surge in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in the province in recent weeks and mark a return to the type of restrictions seen in the first wave of the pandemic. New COVID-19 restrictions: Alberta bans all gatherings, closes most businesses and makes masks mandatory. EDMONTON -- Alberta is banning all social gatherings, closing restaurants, gyms and hair ... Premier Jason Kenney announced new measures Tuesday to curb the spread of COVID-19 in the province, as regulations from Nov. 27 have failed to lower Alberta’s surge in positive cases. The restrictions come as the province announced 1,727 new cases of COVID-19, along with 654 current hospitalizations, and 112 ICU admissions. The update from Alberta’s chief medical officer of health Dr. Deena Hinshaw also included nine new deaths, bringing the total number of deaths to 654 due ... COVID-19 symptoms can be mild and are similar to influenza and other respiratory illnesses. Core symptoms: cough, fever (over 38°C), shortness of breath, runny nose or sore throat. Other symptoms: stuffy nose, painful swallowing, headache, chills, muscle or joint aches, feeling unwell in general, new fatigue or severe exhaustion, gastrointestinal symptoms (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea or ... EDMONTON — The Alberta government announced Tuesday new restrictions to battle record-high rates of COVID-19 infections in the province. In addition to… On Tuesday, Alberta announced new COVID-19 safety restrictions ordering casinos and gyms to close and banning dine-in service at restaurants and bars effective Sunday, Dec. 13.
what are the new regulations for covid in alberta top
Alberta faces pressure for increased restrictions as COVID ...
The Alberta government has ordered the closure of all casinos and gyms, banned dine-in service at restaurants and bars, and imposed a mandatory provincewide ... New targeted restrictions are on the way for some Alberta regions in hopes of bringing spiking COVID-19 cases under control.Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, the... Alberta’s daily reported COVID-19 cases now rival Ontario's for the highest in the country, even though it has a third of the population. The province's resi... In Edmonton, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, provides an update on the province's response to the ongoing COVID-19 (coronavirus... Alberta will be easing some restrictions on Monday amid a decline in new COVID-19 cases.Restaurants will be allowed to open for in-person dining again Feb. 8... Premier Jason Kenney announced sweeping new provincial measures Tuesday as the second wave of COVID-19 continues to hit Alberta hard. The announcement came a... The provincial government has granted Alberta's law enforcement agencies full authority to enforce public health orders and issue fines. To read more: http:/... Dr. Deena Hinshaw will be joined by Health Minister Tyler Shandro to provide an update on COVID-19 in Alberta. In Edmonton, Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, provides an update on the response to the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) pandemic....